Friday, 22nd November 2019
The Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (Haydock, Saturday, 2-25) is the focal point of my betting activity this weekend....
It’s a G3 contest over Haydock’s flat 3-mile trip. The track has dried out with the going described this morning as good to soft....
A maximum field of 17 go to post, so no complaints....
You could make a case for about a dozen of these at various prices, but the one I’ve opted for is SIROBBIE at a general 18s with some 25s and 20s available in places....
There’s a big spread at work in tomorrow’s field with the top-rated horse in on an official rating of 147 and the bottom horse in off 125....
An improving sort towards the bottom of the weights is a reasonable answer to this puzzle and Harry Whittington’s 5yo fits the bill....
He’s done nothing but improve since upped in trip to 3-miles. And there is the likelihood of more improvement yet from a young horse who posted another personal best last time at Uttoxeter in a C2 handicap off the back of a 110-day break on soft ground....
Okay, the horse likes Uttoxeter. He’s 4 from 4 at the place. Haydock will be something different. But he’s a horse who has grown into his racing and is on the up. He deserves a crack at a bigger prize – at whatever track....
For sure, he’s up 8lbs for the Uttoxeter performance. The handicapper has had a say. But a thriving horse can go on again. And this one is still only rated 128 when all is said and done....
Gavin Sheehan was on the horse for its breakthrough win in a 17-runner novice handicap last term. And he was on again last time out. The pair are two wins from two goes....
That means little or nothing on Saturday, of course. This is a different race. But ahead time you can rest assured that Whittington has got the right man for the horse onboard. It counts as a positive....
The bottom line – as ever – is price. I think the horse is undervalued at the prices....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Best Odds On ITV Races Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2.25 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
