Friday, 6th December 2019
It’s an interesting weekend of racing for handicap punters....
Up at Aintree we’ve got the Becher Chase (1.30) and the Grand Sefton (3.15) – both contested over the Grand National fences....
Down at Sandown we’ve got the London National (3.35) over the marathon 3m5f trip....
I’m having a bet in each of these races....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features and themes my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Building on a golden record – Colin Tizzard’s Ultragold has a cracking record over the Grand National fences. He found the big one too much for him last April but he’s won two Topham Chases (the last of those off 141), he’s placed 2nd in a Grand Sefton and he was 3rd in last season’s Becher. He goes for the Grand Sefton this year and clearly merits respect on a mark of 142....
The old red lion – David Pipe’s Vieux Lion Rouge is another with multiple bits of meaningful form over the grand old fences at Aintree. He won the Becher in 2016 off 142 and he was 2nd last term off 146. In between times he’s completed the Grand National course 4 times. He’s still only 10 and goes again in the Becher tomorrow off 145. If he gets into the swing of it again, you wouldn’t put it past him....
Not far enough – One For Arthur needs no introduction. Lucinda Russell’s charge won the 2017 Grand National and was 6th last year. That race will be his target this time around and he clearly thrives over the big Aintree obstacles. But for a horse that needs every yard of the 4m4f Grand National trip (remember how he finished when he won in 2017) is the Becher trip of 3m2f going to represent anything like the test he needs to produce his best?
A big spread – There’s a big spread in the weights in the Becher with the top and bottom weights 32lbs apart on the ratings scale. The likes of Alpha Des Obeaux, Ballyoptic and Definitely Red are up against it of marks in the high 150s. It will be interesting to see how deep they get into the race on soft ground before weight becomes an issue....
The old soldier – The great thing about the jumps is that you get to see your old favourites race for year upon year. Take Venetia Williams’ Houblon Des Obeaux. He’s 12 now and it feels like he’s been around forever. But the fire still burns bright. Last time at Sandown he won for the 8th time over fences and earned a 7lb rise for his trouble. He’s on a mark of 150 and goes again at Sandown tomorrow in the London National. Can he turn back the years again?
The one I like for the Becher (1.30) at the prices is Kim Bailey’s WANDERIN STAR at 20s....
He did nothing wrong at Wincanton last time – winning with what was a career best effort on my figures under David Bass who partners again tomorrow....
It was David Bass who mentioned the Becher as a potential target to Kim Bailey – and that means something....
The pair know a thing or two about horses that take to the big fences. They’ve teamed up to good effect over them a couple of times in the past with The Last Samuri. And this one must be showing some of the right signs....
The 8yo gets the trip; he won’t mind the ground; and he’s in off a nice weight tomorrow. If he takes to the fences then he can go plenty better than the price suggests. I’m sure of that....
There’s a bit of a concern that he goes best off a longer break but he’s had six weeks since that last effort and he deserves to take his chance....
He’s getting plenty of weight off the top horses and he might well be one of those flying up the straight at the end....
In the Grand Sefton (3.15) I am sweet on KILLARO BOY at the general 10s and 9s....
I reckon connections are making a smart move with him in stepping back to the 2m5f trip....
Last time at Aintree over 3m2f he ran a cracker – finding just one too good having been at it up front pretty much all the way....
That run would hopefully have taken some fizz out of him. But he likes to make it and he jumps well. If he gets into a good tempo over the fences he will keep on going at the trip and could be hard to reel back in. he won’t mind the ground conditions either....
Down at Sandown in the London National (3.35) Sue Smith’s SHARP RESPONSE gets my vote at the general 10s and 9s....
He produced a decent effort last time at Haydock. He got well-beaten by the winner but he was the only horse to get into the race from off the pace that day and his effort can be marked up a little on that basis....
He was a decent winner of the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m6f in January and he stayed well that day....
I think he’ll improve again for the step up tomorrow – like a lot of Sue Smith’s horses do. He is fit and firing and whilst he doesn’t have the benefit of Danny Cook on his back, Adam Wedge does know the horse and is a handy substitute in the saddle....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Becher Handicap Chase (1.30 @ Aintree).
In the Grand Sefton (3.15 @ Aintree).
In the London National (3.35 @ Sandown).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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