Tuesday, 10th December 2019
Stats are not a wholly reliable standalone selection method….
At the end of the day, the statistical trends are there to be smashed and everything boils down to the individual horse….
But the historic statistical record is still a source of useful information….
It provides us with a contextual environment within which we can start work….
It alerts us to what has happened before….
And it suggests what might happen once again….
Betting – be it on racing or on any other sport – is a game of opinions. And, as they say, opinions are ten a penny. Everybody has one….
But you can distinguish yourself from the crowd by taking steps to have opinions that are informed – based on knowledge of the facts and a sober assessment of the evidence….
So many opinions in the market are not informed….
They are mere hunches, guesses, desires or wrong-headed assessments dressed-up and masquerading as authoritative and well-thought-out opinions….
They are so many houses built on sand and hot air….
Here at ATC, we do not base our picks entirely on the stats. But we do consult the stats as a starting point in our investigatory process – using and applying them (or not) at our own discretion….
We are not driven by the stats. But we are aware of them. We accept what information the stats have to offer. And we factor that information into our wider considerations….
And we tend to be better informed than wide swathes of the market we are betting against….
Our primary target this weekend is the second of the middle-distance handicap chases run at Cheltenham during the first-half of the jumps season – the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup….
Run over the extended 2m4f trip on the New course, the Caspian is a natural destination for horses that ran in the Bet Victor Gold Cup over 2m4f on the Old Course at the track’s November meeting….
Over the years, a trio of horses have done the double in the same season – Pegwell Bay (1988), Senor El Betrutti (1997) and Exotic Dancer (2006)….
Happy Diva will not attempt to be the fourth horse to pull off that trick. But the horses that finished directly behind her last month – Brelan D’As & Warthog – will be showing up and looking to go one or two places better....
Guitar Pete, down the field last month but a winner of the Caspian in 2017 off 134 and third last year off 138 looks set to go again – this time off 141. Eamon An Cnoic is another having another throw at the coconut. He unseated in last month’s BetVictor Gold Cup....
It’s a little bit like déjà vu, isn’t it?
Of course, one race is not entirely informative about another. Each race has its own specific characteristics. Each race presents its own idiosyncratic challenges. And each individual race suits some horses more than others….
In this instance we must bear in mind, for example, that Saturday’s event is run on the New course (which favours speed) rather than the Old course (which favours stamina).
And we should be aware that specific types of horses have gone very well in Saturday’s event over the years….
For example, it has been a smart move for punters to avoid the veterans and to focus on youth….
All the last 17 Caspian winners were aged 8yo or younger. So too were 38 of the 41 horses that hit the frame over the same period….
Horses you could think of as fully exposed have won this race in the past. Frodon had already raced 20 times over fences before last season’s success. Guitar Pete won off the back of 15 previous chase appearances in 2017. Of course, the race fell into his hands late on. The bare result doesn’t tell the full story….
And the fact is that chasers with single-figure profiles over fences – the type the handicapper might still bet getting to grips with – have been the percentage play in recent times. Twelve of the last 17 winners had raced 9 or fewer times over fences….
And seeking out a horse that has had at least one seasonal run is an advisable policy based on the stats. Sixteen of the last 17 winners had raced within the previous 40 days….
A couple of horses did place off a long lay-off, but plenty more ran down the field and were well beaten. Match fitness does appear to be a strong prerequisite for this contest….
Frodon was rated a whopping 164 when winning the race last term. But here’s something else to bear in mind: just one horses in the previous 16-years had managed to win off a mark higher than 151....
Trainers are creatures of habit. They have races and meetings they like to target. Quite a few like to target this race year on year – and a handful have done so to good effect this century….
Of course, what has happened before is no guarantee that it will happen again on Saturday. That’s the nature of stats, they tell you what has already happened – they are not forward-looking….
But it is worth being aware of race-trends such as this – because they point you at specific runners and encourage you to dig a little deeper into them and give more thought to them than you might otherwise do….
The table below shows the performance record of a group of trainers that have dominated this race since 2000 – it shows wins, places, runs, win strike rate and place strike rate over the period and is listed in order of wins achieved….
It is the same old story with Nicholls and Henderson dominating in terms of volume. Quality outs and the men with the better horses tend to post the better results over time….
But other yards do post strong-enough figures – and consistently so – to suggest any horses they run this time around are worthy of serious study….
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow when we’ll have a look at something else that might help us out with our bets on Saturday afternoon….
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
