Wednesday, 11th December 2019
Yesterday, we studied the historic record and some potential field-splitters that might help make some sense of Saturday’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham....
If you missed that column, you can catch-up right here....
Today, we come at Saturday’s race from a slightly different angle – looking at a different set of stats and data for an additional perspective....
We’ll get to that in just a moment. First, something you might have missed at the weekend....
In case you missed it....I didn’t manage to dig-out a winner at Aintree on Saturday. Both my horses got beat. And the Sandown race got voided.... But followers of the horses on the ATC Watch List enjoyed a little consolation with Acting Lass doing the business down at Chepstow.... I’d nominated her as a winner-in-waiting back at the start of last month following her performance in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot.... At 3s, the SP wasn’t much to write home about. They can’t all be big prices. But a winner at 3s is better than being poked in the eye with a pointed stick.... It doesn’t always work out so sweetly first-time-up with Watch List horses. But it does highlight the value of studying races after they have been run instead of simply moving onto the next event like most punters do.... |
Certain horses produce their best form at certain tracks – time and again. We saw one such horse on Saturday at Aintree....
Walk In The Mill won the Becher for the second time in two years. In between times he ran a cracker in the Grand National. He likes the Grand National course – and those fences – clearly....
And that’s how it is for some of the jockeys too. Let’s not forget that it isn’t just the horse that goes around a track in a race. The jockey does too….
Not all tracks come the same. Topography, elevation, direction of travel, surface, the position of fences, the type of fences, the location of the stands, the length of the finishing straight....
All these things – and more besides – serve to produce a ‘feel’ for the rider. And, inevitably, some tracks ‘feel’ better than others....
It should not surprise us that jockeys have their favourite courses – preferred tracks where, for whatever reason, they produce their best work and get the very best out of the horses they ride there. Time and again....
And it is worth having some idea of who likes where and what they do there....
After all, the jockey is important. Nobody else can influence a horse or provide it with any kind of competitive advantage once the race has started. The jockey is a key player. What he does or doesn’t do has a big part to play in the performance a horse produces....
So – regarding Saturday’s race at Cheltenham- it is very much worth asking the question: who gets the most out of horses in chases run on the New course at Cheltenham?
Have a look at the table below....
It shows the record of some of the top jockeys in handicaps run over the fences on the ‘New Course’ from 2012 onwards....
The individual columns in the table relate to wins (W), places (P), total places (TP), total runs (TR), win strike rate % (W%) and place strike rate % (P%)....
The riders are ordered in terms of place strike rate % - in descending order....
The first thing to note is that the absolute top man is absent from the list. I have left Davy Russell out of my deliberations because he is not going to be riding at Cheltenham on Saturday afternoon....
It is close to certain that come March and the Festival he will be building on a record of 2 wins and 4 places from his last 9 handicap rides over the New course fences....
He really likes the track. In all races (not just handicaps), he is 7 wins from 25 over the qualifying period. If you’d backed all those horses to level stakes you’d be sitting on a 41-point betting profit....
But it is unlikely we will see him at the track before then. So, we discount him for now....
The second thing to note is that several of the name riders have produced half-a-dozen or more wins in handicaps on the New chase course since 2012 but none stands out as an out-and-out ‘top man’ on the New chase course. Place strike rates that fail to climb beyond 35% are just about par in my book – no better and no worse....
Of course, these riders do have the benefit of experience. They have ridden the New chase course more times than their weighing-room colleagues. And that experience counts. That experience is what you should factor into your pre-race thinking....
But I wouldn’t be looking at any of these riders as having a particularly special touch on the New course....
If I were looking for a rider with that special touch, then I would be looking more in the direction of up-and-coming riders or less experienced exponents of the Cheltenham track – who nonetheless boast records of interest....
Take Bryony Frost for instance. She needs no introduction. Her profile has risen like a flag up a pole on the back of her early-career exploits for Paul Nicholls – and rightly so....
Some of her success has come over the New course fences at Cheltenham. As the table below highlights, she is 2 wins and a place from just 6 rides....
It is a small data sample, for sure. But it illustrates one thing – that she can do the business on this track given the right horse....
It also suggests that she will be riding the place with that all-important sense of confidence. And why not? She’s made the most of her opportunities so far....
She’s 4 from 8 if you look at her record in all chases and not just handicaps. She’s good on the New track....
As has Robbie Power – another rider I would draw your attention to....
His association with Colin Tizzard means we are seeing a lot more of this rider than we did when he was racing mostly for Irish yards. And everything we’ve seen to date suggests he is a proper top-table operator – right up there with the top boys....
His record over the fences on the New course – as shown in the table below – reflects that with 2 wins and a place from 7 handicap rides to date....
Again, it’s a small sample. But the point I would make is this: luck plays its part in racing but jockeys don’t get lucky all the time....
Records like those produced by Frost and Power are not anomalies you can write-off as luck or fluke.
Instead, they should be seen and understood as an early indication of talent – for the job generally and at the track particularly.
Luck plays an unquantifiable part but by-and-large performance is a product of ridership. The samples may be small. But they make important points nevertheless....
Finally, I would highlight the record of Daryl Jacob....
Given his age and his experience I would have expected to be putting him in the first group of riders we looked at – the wizened old veterans of the weighing room....
But, I left him out of that. For whatever reason, Jacob hasn’t had the rides he might have expected on the New chase course – certainly not as many as the likes of Richard Johnson, Sam Twiston-Davies and Aidan Coleman....
But the record suggests he should have had more rides. He rides the New chase course better than most....
His 25 handicap rides since 2012 produced 5 wins and 5 places – figures that suggest he is a useful pilot to get on side when you have a decent contender in a handicap at the track....
I don’t know if he’ll be riding at Cheltenham on Saturday. I don’t know whether he will get a mount in the Caspian. But if he does then don’t underestimate him....
Along with Bryony Frost and Robbie Power he might just ride the course well-enough to be considered an advantage in the saddle on Saturday afternoon....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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