Friday, 13th December 2019
The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (1.55) is the one handicap race of interest to me from a betting perspective this weekend....
The G3 contest over the extended 2m4f trip and 17 fences on the New chase course at Cheltenham will see a field of 15 go to post on ground described this morning as good to soft (soft in places)....
We did some prep work for the race earlier this week – pointers, insights and observations that will help make sense of the field.
If you missed that, and you’re looking for your own bets in the race, get up to speed here and here....
Nigel Twiston-Davies has produced a winner and three placed horses from his last 19 runners in this race. And he would have been hoping to add to that record this year with Riders On the Storm....
The market had been building a sense of expectation too. He’d been backed into ante-post favouritism and prices no bigger than 4s....
He looked like a smart operator on his first run for the yard (and seasonal debut) last time at Aintree. It was his first go too at a trip beyond 2m at Aintree. He handled the step-up with aplomb and his win saw him raised 13lbs by the official handicapper....
The rise might have stopped him tomorrow. It might not have done. And we won’t find out. The 6yo has been pulled from the race this morning and Venetia Williams’ Cepage takes over at the top of the market....
The 7yo was 2nd behind Frodon last year off a mark of 143. This year he will have to do it off 155 under top weight....
It’s not that he can’t win. He could. And he might. But I certainly won’t be backing him to do so at the general 6s....
Win tickets for the 2000 Guineas....There are two Premier Badge tickets to next year’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket up for grabs.... If you fancy taking your chance, it couldn’t be easier to enter.... Simply go here and provide the relevant details.... Yesterday, I told you where to go to win tickets for Kempton on 27th December. If you missed that, go here and get the details.... |
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern. Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
The right man up? Aidan Coleman has a solid record in handicaps over fences on the New course. His last 63 rides produced 6 winners and a place strike rate of 31.7%. Tomorrow he gets a first-time ride on Kayley Woollacott’s Lalor (in first-time cheekpieces). Richard Johnson normally obliges but he’s riding for Philip Hobbs. Will Coleman prove a canny replacement?
Special opportunity or spare ride? After winning last week’s Becher again on Walk In The Mill, James Bowen described himself as a ‘journeyman’. This week, that journey leads straight into the arms of Willie Mullins who sends Robin Des Foret – but no yard rider. Is this a great opportunity for Bowen to forge a new alliance? Or just another spare – a case of making up the numbers?
Young but useful – Experience is a key requirement in big-field handicaps. Low-weighted Not That Fuisse doesn’t have much. But he might prove useful. On my ratings his 2nd behind Al Dancer at Cheltenham in October is one of the smartest bits of recent form produced by any horse in tomorrow’s race. And Harry Skelton rides the 6yo rather than stablemate Spiritofthegames. Interesting....
Clue or red herring? Gary Moore’s Benatar (in first-time hood tomorrow) went well-enough on his single visit to Cheltenham back at the 2018 Festival to suggest tomorrow’s race will suit. But maybe he will need the run tomorrow after a break of almost a year. Perhaps that’s why regular rider Jamie Moore is on Knocknanuss whilst Joshua Moore deputises on the 7yo?
I was surprised to be able to get Tom George’s CLONDAW CASTLE at double figures this morning and the general 12s and 11s is a green light for me....
I thought he ran a cracker in preparation at Ascot under a first-time ride from the talented Jonathan Burke....
More than that, I reckon the market is under-estimating that performance. And the official handicapper underestimated it too – leaving the horse unchanged on a mark of 144....
The horse will improve again for that Ascot run. I also reckon the step-up to the 2m4f trip will not just suit but serve to improve the 7yo....
When he’s been on his game at the minimum trip, he’s been seeing his races out well and last term connections were talking about him being tailor made for the Close Brothers Handicap for novices at the Festival – run over the 2m5f trip....
That plan didn’t come to fruition. Instead, they come here to run against some of the big boys. No matter. He’s fit, firing and yet to show his best. That can come tomorrow as a result of the extra yardage. The 12s and 11s is a nice price....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (1.55 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
P.S. One more thing: have you ever heard of the Kiplingcotes Derby? Nor had I. Apparently it is England’s oldest horse race. Get the lowdown here....
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
