Thursday, 2nd January 2020
Okay, so I didn’t quite manage to see out 2019 with a winner....
But I came as close as damn it with Acting Lass and My Way both finding just one horse too good in their pre-Christmas assignments at Ascot....
If I had a penny for every time and all that....
Space Cadet ran like a complete space cadet at Chepstow in the Welsh Grand National....
He never really got going after almost uprooting the first fence and was eventually pulled up....
Being a contrarian handicap punter is all well and good when the horses you pick out justify your decision to go against the crowd with a decent performance....
But there are times when your horses make a monkey out of you and this was one of those instances for sure. All you can do is hold your hands up and move on....
Just A Sting did register a win for followers of our Watch List horses....
And another of our Watch List horses – Vintage Clouds – whilst getting beaten into 3rd in the Tommy Whittle up at Haydock – did enough to suggest that he can be a big player (as suggested here) in the Grand National Trial run at the track later in the new year....
He got a bit outpaced at one point over the extended 25f trip but rallied well and made up plenty of ground in the closing stages. The extra yardage of the Grand National Trial (they go over 3m4f) would see him to better effect....
I had a much-needed rest over the Christmas period – getting plenty of sleep, eating healthily and avoiding the booze....
It was a straight-out case of recharging the batteries and reinvigorating the old grey matter. I read a couple of books, did a few cryptic crosswords, played a few hands of online poker, watched a few films....
And it was nice to sit back and watch some of the Irish racing – purely as a fan and without the usual writing schedule hanging over me. But old habits die hard....
The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown – the big Irish Christmas handicap – got my antenna twitching. The Irish game isn’t our focus but I am happy to take winner-finding clues wherever I find them – and I will always share whatever I come across....
In this instance I came across Henry De Bromhead’s aptly-named Poker Party who finished 4th of the 27 runners over the 3-mile trip – beaten just under 5-lengths....
He’d won the Kerry National over 3-miles (his first go at the trip over fences) at Listowel in September off 138. His effort at Leopardstown was another step forward off 146. And even after reassessment and another rise in the ratings to 148, this 7yo gives me the impression he can go on again – especially if stepped up in trip....
He’s yet to go beyond 3-miles. But the way he finished off over Christmas tells me he will thrive again for doing so....
The Leopardstown race was his first for 107 days. He is entitled to be sharper for it and he is of interest for all the big staying handicap chases going forward. He goes onto the Watch List....
So, we move now into a new year. And I hope it is a happy, healthy and prosperous one for you and yours....
The important thing in any new year is to get a sense of momentum by hitting the ground running. That’s true in all walks of life. Racing is no exception....
With that in mind the inquisitive punter might get to wondering what the historic record has to say about which yards go best in the handicaps run in Britain during January....
Here at ATC we are also inquisitive. But we don’t just wonder – we set to work on the details and dig out the skinny....
And I’ve been digging into the January records from 2017+ (sticking to 3-years means we are not looking beyond the most recent and relevant evidence)....
What I am interested in identifying are the small pool of trainers who display strong strike-rates in handicaps during the month of January and level-stakes betting profits that suggest the market is consistently mis-pricing their handicap runners....
So, I am not interested in Nicky Henderson who shows 12 winners from 47 qualifying runners at 25% during the month of January but shows a profit of just 1.4 points. The market is clearly on to him....
Nor am I interested in Lucinda Russell who shows a profit of 27.2 points with her handicappers during January but with a less than consistent strike-rate of just 13.6%. Her profits are down to one or two big-priced winners that she can’t be relied upon to replicate....
We want consistency. Consistency of performance and consistency in market mispricing. Consistency in both areas is our Holy Grail. The table below highlights who is of most interest in handicaps as this month unfolds....
Note: this table relates to chase and hurdle handicaps across the board (all classes) during the month of January in 2017, 2018 & 2019. It shows the trainer name, wins, runs, win strike rate, points profit to level stakes and points of profit per bet. The table is ordered by points of profit per bet....
There’s more to say on this pool of trainers and how best you might play their handicappers over the next few weeks....
But we’ll get to that tomorrow....
I’ll also be looking at Sandown’s Saturday card for appropriate targets and contrarian bets....
Until then. Stay tuned.
P.S. One more thing: they’re on about adding a 5th day at the Cheltenham Festival. Find out more here. Does ‘more’ mean better or worse? Is this just a case of milking the cash cow? Got an opinion? Share it here....
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