A big price on a day for the old soldiers....

Friday, 3rd January 2020

A big price on a day for the old soldiers….

It’s Friday – the day when I put on the tin hat, stick my head above the parapet and put my money where my mouth is with contrarian selections in the weekend handicaps....

We’ll get down to that order of business shortly. Before we do, I want to clear-up a little unfinished business....

Yesterday, I highlighted a small pool of trainers – each with a solid record of producing winners and betting profit in British handicap races during the month of January....

I provide such information in the hope that anybody seeking out bets this month might find it useful. One thing I can guarantee you is that the people you are betting against (the market) will largely be unaware of what I am telling you. That’s an edge. An information edge....

For all the detail, you might want to catch-up here. If you’re pressed for time, the basics appear in the table below....

Today, I just want to add a few bits of additional direction....

• A few sweet spots....

You could go through your entire race-betting career and not really come across David Rees. Especially if you focus exclusively on the better-quality action....

Rees tends to ply his trade in the lower reaches of the game and at tracks not too far from his Welsh base....

But no matter. He tops our list with his handicappers producing 2.5 points of profit per bet in the last three months of January....

If you were looking for the sweet spot in his January handicap record – that would be the chasers. He’s 4 from 10 runners with those with levels stakes profits running to 43 points – that’s 4.3 points per bet....

Sue Smith has very good record with her January handicappers. Figures like those she’s produced should be making headlines. But most punters will be totally unaware....

Danny Cook is the key man. When they partner up the record reads 15 from 43 with levels stakes profits of 33.6 points – or 0.78 points per bet.

Where Philip Kirby is concerned the trick has been to focus attention exclusively on his hurdlers.

That group account for all 12 of his January handicap winners over the last three years.

Finally, Neil Mulholland’s strike-rate in January handicaps rises to 31.2% if you focus solely on his handicap chasers....

The last 32 qualifiers produced 10 winners and 26.1 points of betting profit to level stakes. That’s 2.6 points of profit per bet – and not a bad return....

• The weekend action....

The ground is drying out a little at Sandown. There’s no rain forecast over the next 24-hours and the surface is moving towards good to soft rather than going the other way....

I reckon that could have a bearing on the outcome of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (3.00) – the final of the series which will be run this year in memory of last year’s runaway winner, poor old Houblon Des Obeaux....

Few if any of these old soldiers are improving and it is highly unlikely that Neil Mulholland’s CAROLE’S DESTRIER is going to get back to the level that saw him very unlucky not to win the 2016 edition of the Ladbrokes Trophy with a great late rattle (this column was on at big prices)....

But he doesn’t have to be that good to win this. And whilst Newbury is where he does best it is the underfoot conditions that are the key to this horse....

He doesn’t produce his best on ground that is too soft and the drying conditions are very much in his favour tomorrow. He showed back in March the levels he can hit when he gets his ground....

He has won at this track before, Mulholland’s string has gone well over the festive period and he does well with his handicapper chasers at this time of year....

I reckon the 12yo is too big at this morning’s 16s and I’m getting on him....

• A final word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd