Thursday, 16th January 2020
Big-field handicaps are the primary focus here at ATC. We love the valuable big-field handicaps. We go from one to the next – year-on-year. The big handicaps are the punctuation marks in our life sentence....
But we’re not cranks. And (like most connoisseurs of the sport) we keep a weather-eye on the what’s going with the big condition races too – especially the Championship events....
But, whatever the race – handicap or conditions race – we take the same approach to our betting....
We look to take on the short-horses and opt instead for the right kind of horse trading at the wrong price....
So, right now, with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon, the G1 Stayers’ Hurdle market has piqued our interest....
Why? Because one horse now dominates market sentiment. Last year’s winner of the race – Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park – sits atop the ante-post market at a general 5/4 and 6/4 in one or two places....
The 8yo is unbeaten since October 2018. His powers showed no signs of diminishing last time when winning the G2 Long Distance Hurdle at Ascot for the second year in succession in November....
He had to work to win whilst giving 6lbs to Thistlecrack, but he wouldn’t have been fully fit and he was very much a horse working his way towards concert-pitch. In that context, his performance served to set the standard for the rest....
He’s G1 class. There is absolutely no doubt about that. He’s not won anything by a fluke. And there is likely more to come.
He could well win the Stayers’ Hurdle again for Lavelle in March – the race has a habit of throwing up multiple winners. Right now, he is certainly the one to beat....
But we always take an interest in ante-post short-prices at the Festival. In whatever race we find them....
Not because we want to take those prices. But because we know that Festival races are the most competitive races on the planet....
You get the odd superstar who justifies a short price in a Festival event with relative ease. But for the most part races are not a coronation. They rarely turn into a procession....
Instead, most Festival races turn out to be more difficult – a lot more difficult – to win than the pre-race betting suggests....
I am not saying that Paisley Park can’t win again or will not win for a second time. He might well win by 15-legnths. But 8-weeks ahead of time, I wouldn’t be wanting to back him at the prevailing price to do it....
I’d prefer to take the view that the race – on-the-day – will turn out to be more competitive than the market assumes it will be right now. And that horses trading at bigger prices will be swinging away competitively when push comes to shove....
With a proper short-horse already installed at the top of the betting, it is worth starting the process of digging out potential party-poopers at prices....
The historic record can assist us with that aim. Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time again in the Championship races....
The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials…. They have similar qualifications…. They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks….
Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile….
Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends tend to fall short....
It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least....
And that information can help you reach betting decisions….
I call these documents Race Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races....
I use my Race Profiles to identify horses that tick a lot of the right boxes but can be backed at big prices. And when a horse arouses my interest I take a closer look. And, if I still like what I see, then I might go in....
If you fancy looking for something to take Paisley Park on with at a price in the ante-post markets – you will find the Race Profile below a useful aide in that search....
I’ve studied each of the last 22 renewals of the Stayers’ Hurdle – but given that there have been so many multiple winners over that period I’ve focused my attention most closely on the 16 renewals since 1997 featuring first-time winners of the race….
I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Those stats will guide you to the racehorses best-qualified and best-equipped to prove competitive in this season’s premier event for staying hurdlers....
Maybe you’ll find one or two of interest at big prices….
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow as per usual with my contrarian take on the weekend action....
I’m interested in a couple of races at Ascot and Haydock....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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