Friday, 17th January 2020
My focus this week has been very much on the Cheltenham Festival....
That might seem strange with the meeting still 8-weeks away but getting started on the spadework now makes sense....
It’s quiet on the domestic racing front immediately after the Festive period. And there’s a lot to get through ahead of the biggest 4-days on the British racing calendar....
The last thing you want to be doing is trying to get all the spadework done for the Festival on the weekend ahead of it getting underway....
Leave it that late and you’re going to be cutting corners at best....
I’d already revealed what a Gold Cup winner tends to look like before the race takes place. You can revisit that here....
On Monday, I reviewed the abysmal record of favourites and other shorties at the meeting. It’s a good reminder of why not to do what value-seeking punters like us never do....
On Wednesday I looked at an absolute key field-splitter that applies to ALL races run at the Cheltenham Festival – not just the handicaps....
And yesterday, I had a look at the Stayers’ Hurdle – a race with a short-priced ante-post favourite it might pay to oppose with a qualified horse at prices....
We’ll get back to a more conventional running-order next week. But this week has served a big purpose....
We have made inroads on the job of getting prepared for the biggest meeting on the planet. And we will continue in fits and starts over the next few weeks. Come March, we will be glad we took the time....
Today, it is back to normal business and my take on the pick of the prices in the big weekend handicaps....
Sandy Thomson has his string in decent form right now with 4 winners going in for the yard over the last fortnight and his GERONIMO is worth an investment at 7s in tomorrow’s Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock 2.40....
Only 10 go to post over the 3m1f trip on heavy ground. And the bookies have done their usual and gone all cautious on the prices....
You can’t blame them, but with 7 of the 10 in the betting at single-figure prices you could easily justify giving this race the swerve from a betting perspective. But there’s just enough in the price of Geronimo to tempt me in....
The 9yo is a very lightly-raced type who has gone up 26lbs over the last 16-months or so. You could make the case that the official handicapper has established a grip on him, but I’m not so sure....
He keeps overcoming the rises applied to him and he continues to be competitive. I reckon there could be more to come yet....
He likes a flat left-hander – as illustrated by his record at Ayr. He won’t mind the ground tomorrow either and it will serve to bring his obvious stamina into play....
He’s only had a single run this term – winning on heavy ground over 2m4f at Newcastle. Don’t let that shorter trip fool you. He stays plenty further and this race has been the target since then – and probably before....
He is a player tomorrow and the price is fair enough....
Things are a little disappointing tomorrow at Ascot....
There’s £50k in prize money for the Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (2.25). But only 8 runners turn out from a possible 22 overnight....
Perhaps this race comes too soon after the Lanzarote at Kempton. Who knows? All I can tell you is that it holds no appeal as a betting contest....
However, I do think Richard Hobson’s ALLYSSON MONTERG is worth a bet at the 12s in the bet365 Handicap Chase (3.00)....
He ran a decent race up against much higher-rated horses in first-time cheekpieces in a G2 at Cheltenham last time and can build on that....
He was beaten into 4th of the 6 runners and was 18-lengths in arrears to Frodon at the end. But it was a big ask at the weights and he ran with plenty of credit for a long way before tiring in the latter stages of the contest....
That race was over 3-miles and tomorrow’s trip will suit much better. So will the lesser opposition in handicap company. He’s potentially nicely weighted on a mark of 138. And he’s had a wind-op since last seen....
A wind procedure is no guarantee of improvement of course. Especially not first-time up. But it does suggest Hobson feels there is more to be got out of the horse yet....
He’s a nice price with that last run at Cheltenham advertising his well-being....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 @ Haydock).
In the bet365 Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back in your inbox on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
