Friday, 24th January 2020
The Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.15) is the principal target for handicap punters on Saturday afternoon – at least it is this for this one....
It might only be a Listed event compared to the Grade 3 handicap taking place at Cheltenham. But there’s more money up for grabs in the race at Doncaster – and money talks loudest when push comes to shove....
On top of that, the Cheltenham race has cut-up to 10 runners and I don’t fancy it as a betting heat....
We did a little spadework on the Doncaster race a little earlier this week – with a few thoughts on how you might go about splitting the field. If you missed that, you can catch-up here....
A field of 14 horses goes to post on ground described as good to soft (soft in places). The Met Office forecast is for predominantly dry weather between now and the off. It’s going to be decent ground to race on....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Different class – Nicky Henderson has done okay in this race with 3 placers from 8 runners since 2006. The Trevor Hemmings-owned Burbank represents the yard tomorrow. He’s not unfancied. He’s logged 2 wins from his last 4 goes. But this is a different test – a much hotter contest than anything he’s tackled before over fences. Watch how he copes....
Form yards – Nicky Henderson has been in great form over the last fortnight with 10 winners from 38. Only Sue Smith’s horses can boast similar well-being. She’s 5 winners from 14 runners over the same period. Vintage Clouds won the big handicap for her at Haydock last weekend. Can Ravenhill Road make it another big day?
Jonjo O’Neill Jr – He’s only had 18 career rides at Doncaster but he’s managed to win on 4 and shows a 10-point profit to level stakes. Tomorrow he rides Quarenta for his father – a horse that’s gone up rating scale to the tune of 12lbs since April. It will be the horse’s first visit to Town Moor. Will young O’Neill prove a key advantage....
Famous last words? Dan Skelton reaches for first-time cheekpieces for Solomon Grey. They’ll need to work real magic because this horse has been smashed on both appearances this term. He’s hard to fancy. I wouldn’t want him at ANY price. I couldn’t have OK Corral either. Handicaps are funny things though. Will my words come back to haunt me?
Grand National clues? Whichever horse wins might be spoken of as a Grand National horse. Five of the last 13 winners of this race ran in the Aintree race later the same season. Listen to any speculative commentary and observe market moves with the knowledge that none of the five managed to hit the frame at Aintree....
Some readers assume that I look at these races and try to pick out the winner....
But that’s not the case. I don’t look for winners. Instead, I look for a horse I reckon can get competitive but which is trading at a wrong price....
I’m always against the short horses. I never back anything anybody else fancies. Without fail, I seek the contrarian option in the market. Sometimes I look stupid as a result. Sometimes I look like a genius....
The aim is to find value. If I do that job effectively enough over time, the winners will look after themselves – and at prices which get me in front across the long-term. That’s the theory....
The one I’ve latched onto for tomorrow’s race is the Venetia Williams-trained CALIPTO at the general 16s....
That’s too big. He was 3rd in the race last year off 3lb lower. But it had only been a fortnight since his previous run and it might have come just a bit too soon for a horse that has to be campaigned judiciously. The ground might have been a little quicker than optimum too....
He’s not been so busy this term. He’s appeared just once at Chepstow – where he disappointed on soft ground....
He’s better than that – and he can show as much at a price tomorrow. Good to soft ground is perfect for him, he handles the track and he’s proven at the trip....
The one thing I really like is that 5lb claimer High Nugent takes the ride. The claim will help, but it is Nugent’s record on the horse that catches the eye. He’s 2 from 2 and the pair obviously click....
I think this race might have been the plan for a while. I can’t know for sure, but whether I am right or wrong, the price underestimates the 10-year-old....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.15 @ Doncaster). That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until next time. Stay tuned....
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