Friday, 7th February 2020
We’ve got a top handicap to get our teeth into this weekend in the shape of the Betfair Hurdle over the 2-mile trip at Newbury (3.35)….
The G3 contest carries prize money of £150k – with winning connections waltzing off into the Berkshire night with £87k of that plus change....
Ground conditions are described this morning as being somewhere between good and good to soft....
There is rain forecast this evening, but unless more falls than is forecast, course officials don’t expect the ground to change to any significant degree....
A maximum field of 24 goes to post. Not many are going backwards. This is a race largely contested – year-on-year – by horses climbing the ladder rather than horses slipping down the snake....
The historic record can provide guidance and context if you are set on digging out your own selection for this race – and why wouldn’t you be?
Young and lightly-raced horses have been the percentage play when it comes to finding the winner of this race – a trend that stretches back almost half a century....
It isn’t that older horses can’t win – just that the younger horses come out on top more years than not. 34 of the last 46 winners were aged 5- or 6-years-old....
And that trend has hardened off over the last 10 renewals. ALL the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6. So were 20 of the 30 placed horses in those races....
13 of the last 16 winners had appeared 10 times or less on a racetrack. Eight of those had raced 4 times or fewer – including each of the last 4 winners of the race....
Despite youth and inexperience, familiarity with winning has been important. Fourteen of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles before emerging victorious in this race....
I rarely play it safe in big handicaps. Call me a reckless fool, but that is one trend that won’t be changing....
That said, I could understand a cautious punter not wanting to stray too far down the betting order here. Eight of the last 10 winners of this came out of the top 4 in the betting. Five of those winners were sent off favourite....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Repeat offenders – Some yards have more form in this race than others. Nigel Twiston-Davies has the best recent record in this race with 3 winners and a placer from his last 8 runners. Gary Moore has won the race three times too. Both have runners again this time around....
Bonus chasing – Noises coming out of the yard suggest connections are not 100% about running Not So Sleepy. But having won the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot last time, he’s up for a £100k bonus here. They’ve got to have a shot really. The lightly-raced 8yo is up 17lbs for that last win – and deservedly so. Is there more to come – more performance and more money?
The best horse on ratings – Gumball has had a good season to date and he’s up a stone for it. A rating of 153 makes him top-weight tomorrow. No top-weight has won in the last 17 renewals. Top claimer Ben Jones is on. His 3lb allowance will help. But will it be enough to render the horse a player?
Well-in at the weights– On all known evidence in the book, Jamie Snowden’s Thebannerkingrebel is perhaps best-off at the weights tomorrow. He’s 4lb well-in and gets a pull at the weights with Stolen Silver who beat him just 2-lengths at Haydock in a race run in the same time as the Champion Hurdle trial and where he was perhaps a little unlucky not to finish in front....
Irish raider – It is 15-years since an Irish raider won this race. Willie Mullins tries to reverse that trend – and to win the race for the first time tomorrow – with Ciel De Neige. If he does win, it won’t be the first-time for owner J P McManus. He won it with My Tent Or Yours back in 2013....
Some readers assume that I look at these races and try to pick out the winner....
But that’s not the case. I don’t look for winners. Instead, I look for a horse I reckon can get competitive but which is trading at a wrong price....
I’m always against the short horses. I never back anything anybody else fancies. Without fail, I seek the contrarian option in the market. Sometimes I look stupid as a result. Sometimes I look like a genius....
The aim is to find value. If I do that job effectively enough over time, the winners will look after themselves – and at prices which get me in front across the long-term. That’s the theory....
Emma Lavelle’s HIGHLY PRIZED appeals at the general 14s....
I know the 7yo has been off for 88-days and will have to do the job first-time-up but I also know that the horse has been trained specifically for this race....
And I reckon the ground has dried sufficiently to be in his favour....
I’m trusting the weather forecast to a degree. This horse won’t act on ground too soft. So, if unscheduled rains arrive, I’m going to be shouting and bawling like a kid with a full nappy. But I believe this horse is a player and I am prepared to take the risk at the price....
He’s up 10lbs to a mark of 133 for his last win but this is a horse on the upgrade and I can’t have it that he isn’t ahead of the handicapper on that perch....
He’s at the right end of the weights tomorrow. He will go to post under just 10-6 with the very promising Jonjo O’Neill Jnr coming in for the ride. I see him running a big race....
I want to be two-against-the-field in this one and my second selection is another against-the-grain 7yo – Alan King’s HARAMBE is generously priced-up this morning at 16s....
King has been a little out-of-form over the last fortnight. But balanced against that is the fact that King is a dab-hand at preparing horses for these big targets and I expect this one to be at concert pitch for a race that has been his target since an infection kept him out of the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot in December....
The enforced break – he was last seen when winning the Greatwood Gold Cup in November – won’t do him any harm. This horse doesn’t take a lot of racing and goes well fresh. I just think he’s overpriced and still has more to offer off a mark of 144....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Hurdle (3.35 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
In the meantime, enjoy your weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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