Tuesday, 11th February 2020
The Cheltenham Festival is just a month way now – and that time will pass (like life itself) faster than a speeding bullet....
During the 4-day meeting, I’ll be predominantly focused on the handicap events....
That’s not to say I won’t have the odd bet in other races. But the handicaps are where it’s at for me – and that’s the area on which my pre-meeting spadework has been focused....
Today, I dig a little deeper in that regard this afternoon – after a weekend of behind-the-scenes activity....
Back at the end of January, we looked at the Festival handicap chases as a group of races and isolated stats that might be used to split the fields in those specific races. You can catch-up on that coverage here....
Today we get into more detail and look at some of the strongest race-specific stats in the historic record – stats that might help us zero-in more precisely on horses of interest in the handicap chase events at the Festival....
Run on Day 1, the G3 Ultima Handicap Chase is contested over the 25f trip on the Old course....
Keep it in mind that 15 of the last 19 editions of the race were won by novice or second-season chasers....
And that 24 of the previous 28 race winners had already won or placed 2nd during the current season....
And that all winners of the race since the turn of the century had recorded their best chasing RPR over 3+ miles – and that the career-best of those horses amounted to at least 143....
Fav-backers should be warned that the race has produced just two winning favourites since 1994....
And punters who rely on Paul Nicholls to know the time of day should take note of the fact that his last 23 runners in the race have drawn a blank....
41 of the last 45 winners were aged 7- to 10-years-old....
Only 2 of the last 48 runners aged 11+ managed to hit the frame....
7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear of some description....
10 of the last 12 winners had already registered a victory over 3m+
10 of the last 12 had run within the last 45 days
Irish trainers have won 2 renewals since 2000. David Pipe has won 3 times since 2008 from just 13 runners....
Prior to 2018 and 2019 it was 30+ years since a 150+ rated horse won the race....
Run on Day 3, the G3 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase is contested over the extended 20f trip on the New course....
Irish yards have won 3 of the last 4 renewals of the race, but prior to that the Irish had drawn a blank for 34-years....
It should be noted that 20 of the last 24 winners carried no more than 10-13....
And that 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated no higher than 141....
And that there have been just two winning favourites this century....
20 of the last 21 winners had raced 3 to 16 times over fences....
22 of the last 23 winners had already won a chase over a trip between 19f and 21f....
Only one 5yo has won the race....
The Pipe family has a history of targeting the race effectively – Martin Pipe winning it 4 times and David Pipe winning it 3 times to date (and producing 4 placers)....
Venetia Williams is another handler with a potent record – her last 28 participants produced 3 wins and 5 additional places....
Nicky Henderson is another name worth noting with his last 31 runners producing 2 winners and six additional placers....
Run on Day 3, the C2 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase is contested over the 26f trip on the New course....
16 of the last 18 winners were aged no younger than 7 and no older than 9. Since 1992, only 3 horses aged older than 9 have won....
18 of the last 20 winners had raced over the 3m+ last time out....
Only one of the last 15 winners had won last time out....
Rider Jamie Codd has won the event 4 times since 2009 – and placed once....
8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear of some description....
The last 4 David Pipe trained horses finishing 1st or 2nd had been off 75+ days...
Derek O'Connor had finished runner-up 3 times before winning the race on Any Second Now in 2019. Only two claimers have managed to place in first 3 over the last 11 years....
All the last 16 winners had raced at least twice that term....
Since 2009, every winner has carried 11-00+ (5 carried 11-09+)....
9 of the last 11 winners came from out of the top 6 in the betting at the off....
Gordon Elliott is a man with a record to be reckoned with. His nine runners in the race produced a winner and 4 places....
Run on Day 4, the G3 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase is contested over the 16f trip on the New course....
Punters should take note that 25 of the last 29 race winners were younger than 10....
And that 19 of the last 21 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences....
And that only one of the last 36 winners was carrying a claimer....
And that 14 of the last 16 winners had appeared at a previous Festival – albeit none winning a chase event....
Also, that 21 of the last 24 winners had produced a top-3 finish in at least one of its last two starts....
9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 138 to 147. Five of the last six winners had carried at least 11-00 to post....
8 of the last 15 winners had appeared in a previous renewal of the race....
JP McManus has won the race 4 times and placed with eight additional
participants....
Only 5 winners since 1990 had been off for 45+ days....
Those are just about the strongest stats throw-up by previous renewals of the handicap chase events that will be run at the Festival in a month’s time....
They might assist you with scratching horses. They might help you compile a shortlist. They might help you decide whether to bet one horse over another....
They might assist you in the search for value – pinpointing runners that tick the right boxes but which are available back at attractive prices that underestimate their true chances of winning....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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