Wednesday, 12th February 2020
In just a month’s time we will be immersed in the 4-day Cheltenham Festival....
Across the entire meeting my primary focus will be the handicap events – over fences and over hurdles....
That doesn’t mean that other races will be completely off-my-radar. I will take the value bets as and where I find them – as per usual. But the handicaps are the key betting races for me – and that’s the area on which my pre-meeting spadework has been focused....
And we continue with the digging today....
Back at the start of the month we looked at the Festival handicap hurdles as a group of races and isolated stats that might be used to split the fields in those specific races. You can catch up on that coverage here....
Yesterday, we covered the race-specific field-splitting stats for the handicap chase events run at the Festival. If you missed that, you can catch-up here....
Today we get into more detail and look at some of the strongest race-specific stats in the historic record – stats that might help us zero-in more precisely on horses of interest in the handicap hurdle events at this year’s Festival....
Run on Day 2, the G3 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is contested over the 21f trip on the Old course....
Punters approaching this contest should note the following....
15 of the last 19 race winners were aged between 5- and 7-years-old. Only 2 British-trained horses older than 9 have ever placed. Only 3 from 35 horses aged 10+ have placed since 1999....
22 of the last 26 winners were officially rated no higher than 147....
17 of the last 19 winners had won no more than one handicap race over hurdles....
16 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 9 times over hurdles. Nine of the last 13 winners were second-season hurdlers....
14 of the last 19 winners had no previous experience of the Cheltenham Festival....
The last 16 horses sent off favourite got beaten....
14 of the last 17 winners had registered a win earlier in the season....
14 of the last 15 winners had not been seen on the track for at least 32+ days....
Only one winner since 2004 had previously won a Graded race....
6 of the 8 Irish trained winners this century had not been seen since 29th January....
Just one of the last 92 runners to sport headgear produced a win....
Run on Day 3, the G3 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle is contested over the 24f trip on the New course....
If you’re approaching this race from a betting perspective, it could pay to take heed of the following statistical realities....
Only 3 of the last 21 winners had won a Pertemps qualifier to get into the final – it appears most preferred to save winning form for the big day in March....
19 of the last 27 winners had already scored over hurdles at 3m and beyond....
Don’t simply discount horses that have been performing over fences – such horses have a solid record in this race. Think Fingal Bay, Freetown, Creon, Kadoun, Buena Vista and Cape Tribulation....
There have only been 3 winning favourites in the Pertemps since the turn of the century – 13 of the last 18 winners were sent off at double-figure SPs – a reminder that the contrarian approach is the best approach in these ultra-competitive Festival events....
Only two French-bred horses have managed to win this race during the current century. Only one horse older than 9 has managed to win since 2002....
18 of the last 21 winners had raced no fewer than 6 times over hurdles and no more than 15 times....
All the last 8 winners were officially rated 138 to 148.
David Pipe has won twice since 2010 - and placed with 6. Jonjo O’Neill has won 3 times this century....
Gordon Elliott is the current force in the race. His 7 runners since 2016 have produced two winners and three placers....
Run on Day 4, the G3 County Handicap Hurdle is contested over the 16f trip on the New course....
When you come to look at the runners and riders for this event, it is worth bearing the following points in mind and factoring them into your deliberations....
14 of the last 17 race winners were either novices or second-season hurdlers....
13 of the last 15 winners were officially rated 128 to 139....
All the winners since 1994 had already participated in a handicap hurdle event – none was debuting in a handicap event....
18 of the last 19 winners had never won a race at Cheltenham – only 2 horses have won a County Hurdle since 1991 having already won a race at the track. 12 of the last 19 winners were making their debuting at Festival....
Dan Skelton is the coming force. His first 8 runners in the race have produced 3 winners and three more horses that finished in the first 7....
Philip Hobbs runners are worth a looksee. He’s hit frame 7 times in 12 years – with some at big prices....
Youth doesn’t appear to be a bar in the County. Since 1998, a 5yo has come out on top on 10 occasions....
Just one of the last 13 winners was sent off at single-figure SP. Seven of the last 12 winners were returned at 20s or bigger....
Run on Day 4, the C2 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle is contested over the 20f trip on the New course....
This race has only been contested on 11 occasions – having been added to the Festival roster in 2009. But already there are developing trends that punters should be aware of going into this season’s edition of the race....
10 of the winners to date were aged 5- or 6-years-old....
All carried 11-00 or more....
8 were second season hurdlers – the other 3 were novices....
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott have dominated – winning 3, 2 and 2 renewals respectively. David Pipe is 0 from 19 in his attempts to win the race named after his father – and he’s only saddled a single placed finisher....
10 of the 11 winners to date had already won a hurdle race contested by 11+ runners....
10 of the 11 winners had raced within the last 8-weeks....
Only one Irish-trained winner – Joseph O’Brien’s Early Doors (2019) had previously run in a handicap....
Just one of the 11 winners went off favourite. Eight of the 11 were sent off at double-figure SPs....
Those are just about the strongest stats throw-up by previous renewals of the handicap hurdle events that will be run at this season’s Festival....
They might assist you with scratching horses. They might help you compile a shortlist. They might help you decide whether to bet one horse over another....
They might assist you in the search for value – pinpointing runners that tick the right boxes but which are available back at attractive prices that underestimate their true chances of winning....
That’s all from me for today....
I’ll be back tomorrow with more handicap-focused insights and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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