Friday, 21st February 2020
The main feature for handicap punters like us tomorrow is the Betway Handicap Chase at Kempton (3.35)....
Fourteen horses are set to go to post for the G3 contest. They go over the right-handed 3-mile trip and 18 fences....
The report from the track this morning says the ground is soft (good to soft in places). Reading between the lines of statements made earlier in the week, it is my guess that the track officials were determined to get the word ‘good’ in there somewhere....
But with showers forecast for tomorrow, I’d say we’re going to be closer to soft than we are to good when the tapes go up on this one. There’s a lot of water in the ground....
The historic record can still provide a little guidance and some context if you are set on digging out your own selection for this race....
We had a look at the relevant stats, facts and figures for this one yesterday. If you missed that, I report myself below for your convenience....
Age has been a decent-enough splitter over the last two decades. Seventeen of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger....
Seventeen of the winners over that same period were officially rated 138 or higher....
But be aware that no horse has managed to win off a rating bigger than 154....
Fifteen of the last 20 winners had contested no more than 11 chases....
Fifteen of the last 17 winners finished in the top 5 in their last outing....
The Saturday racing is not all about betting, of course....
It’s also an opportunity to gather information and to monitor events and situations that frequently elude the attention of a mainstream racing media that is fixated on the Pattern....
Here are some of the features, points, issues and themes that my antenna will be tuned to tomorrow afternoon....
Class act – Black Corton is the class act in tomorrow’s line-up. He carries top weight as a result. The historic record says he’s got it all to do off an official rating of 159. No horse has won this off higher than 154. See how he goes. Bryony Frost rides....
One of four – Paul Nicholls is having a right go this year. Black Corton is one of four runners for him in tomorrow’s edition. He clearly wants to build on a record of 2 wins and 7 places from 33 runners over the last two decades. With almost a third of the field going for him, he’s short odds to do so....
By George – Tom George has done well in this race over the years – winning it with Nacarat (twice). Double Shuffle has placed twice as well – off 149 in 2017 and then off 154 last year. He goes again this year off 150. He’s still only 10 and this is without doubt his favourite track....
Back for more – Double Shuffle isn’t the only returnee. Four of the first five home last year turn-up again tomorrow. Adrian Du Pont was third last year off 151 and runs off 145 this time. Romain De Senam was close-up in 4th too off 137. But he’s up to 148 now and will need to overcome a long lay-off....
Off a lay-off – Alan King’s Talkischeap is the other one in the field who turns out off the back of a long lay-off. He’s not been back in strong work for long after a hobday breathing operation. His target is the Grand National and I doubt he will be at concert pitch tomorrow....
Some readers assume that I look at these races and try to pick out the winner....
But that’s not the case. I don’t look for winners. Instead, I look for a horse I reckon can get competitive but which is trading at a wrong price....
I’m always against the short horses. I never back anything anybody else fancies. Without fail, I seek the contrarian option in the market. Sometimes I look stupid as a result. Sometimes I look like a genius....
The aim is to find value. If I do that job effectively enough over time, the winners will look after themselves – and at prices which get me in front across the long-term. That’s the theory....
My betting life is a constant tussle – trying to find the right balance between well-handicapped horses and prices....
Just A Sting is an example of what I mean in tomorrow’s Betway Handicap Chase (3.35) at Kempton....
I believe Harry Fry’s 8yo is remarkably well-handicapped on a mark of 137 (up just 3lb for his last time out win over course and distance on soft ground) but I cannot back him at the general 6s....
I wouldn’t put any common-garden picker off backing that one. I think he could prove 10lb better than his current mark (if not tomorrow then down the line)....
But backing fancied horses is not the job on ATC. Those horses must be opposed here – and I have to look elsewhere....
For me, the contrarian bet here is Dr Richard Newland’s DASHING PERK at 12s....
He’s lightly-raced and inexperienced. But that hasn’t stopped him recording some decent form in the book....
His win against Paint The Dream at Sandown in December off a 414-day break reads very nicely now....
Paint The Dream has subsequently risen to 140 on the official scale and Fergal O’Brien rates that horse....
Dashing Perk gets to go off 131 tomorrow. He’s 2lb out of the handicap but he’s simply got to be better than the bare weights and this step up to the 3-mile trip for this valuable pot is the right time to prove it. I think he’s a fair bet at the price....
Nico De Boinville is an interesting booking in the saddle. You could make the case that he has the look of a spare. And I wouldn’t argue with you. But he’s top drawer and, spare or not, that’s a positive. And his trainer is a fair shot when it comes to targeting big handicaps. The 9yo is here because they think something of him at home. He’s not here to make up the numbers....
Heavy ground is going to turn the 4-mile Eider Chase into a real battle of attrition tomorrow afternoon (2.45)....
Fergal O’Brien’s Petite Power is the market’s idea of the most likely winner....
That’s fair enough. He’s older than the commonplace winner of this race, but he’s gone up a stone in the rankings and ran with credit in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. There could be more to come off his current perch....
But it is not my role to tell you what the market is clearly expressing. My role – self-imposed as it is – is to find a competitive bet at a price....
The one that appeals is the Nicky Richards-trained GLITTERING LOVE at 8s...
He’s another progressive type in the line-up. He won each of his first four races over fences last term....
He might well have made it five on the bounce on seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in December. He was still travelling easily when coming to grief five from home....
Last time he might still have been suffering the effects of that fall when soundly-enough beaten behind Fortified Bay (he gets a 7lb pull in the weights with that one tomorrow)....
I’m not concerned about that last time out performance. I know Nicky Richards wanted to get a couple of runs into his 8yo before aiming him at tomorrow’s race. I doubt he would have been absolutely spot-on and he could be a different horse again tomorrow....
Especially for this step up to a marathon trip. The 33f+ trip is an unknown for every horse in the field. And we won’t know for sure who will stay it strongest until we see tomorrow’s race unfold....
But Glittering Love has very much given the impression that he will improve for a marathon trip. The ground won’t be a bother. And we know he likes the track. First-time cheekpieces will hopefully help sharpen his edge too. I am hopeful of a big run....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betway Handicap Chase (3.35 @ Kempton).
In the Eider Chase (2.45 @ Newcastle).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back on Monday with more handicap-focused analysis and insight....
In the meantime, enjoy your weekend....
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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