Friday, 28th February 2020
It’s not the biggest, the best or the brightest Saturday on the racing programme....
It’s a bit like the calm before the storm. The waters are lapping – but we’re waiting for the real waves to start breaking at Cheltenham and Aintree....
No matter. It can’t always be full-on fireworks and it’s not as though there’s nothing to shoot at....
The Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury tomorrow (3.15) is interesting. There is a decent bet to be struck at prices. We’ll get to that....
I’m not bothering with the Grimthorpe up at Doncaster though. The race has cut up. But one point: why is Definitely Red down to carry a massive 12-7?
I couldn’t work it out. I ended up calling his trainer Brian Ellison to ask him the question. He admitted he’d been confused too....
It turns out because the Grimthorpe is the horse’s second preference (he’s also engaged at Kelso), top weight in the Grimthorpe is allotted to the second horse and Definitely Red (if he took up the Doncaster engagement) would have to carry 10lb more than that....
FYI, I am told Definitely Red will be heading to Kelso....
You never stop learning in this game....
The historic record can still provide a little guidance and some context if you are set on digging out your own selection for the Greatwood. To recap on what I said yesterday....
Paul Nicholls has quite literally farmed this race – winning it nine times since 2006. From just 31 runners in total too. That’s some record. None of his three participants tomorrow can be summarily discounted. Aside from that....
Age is a reasonable place to begin. Fourteen of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or younger....
No top-weight has won across the 16 years the race has been contested. Indeed, 15 of the 16 winners carried less than 11-6....
Fourteen of the 16 winners had run at some point within the previous 6-week period....
Thirteen of the previous 16 winners had some previous experience of the track at Newbury – either over fences or over hurdles....
Thirteen of the 16 previous winners had already registered a chase win over the 2m4f trip....
Those are the strongest stats for my money. Weight of evidence is what you’re looking for. Horses that tick all or most of these key boxes are of definite interest and deserve close scrutiny....
I’m always against the short horses. Without fail, I always seek out a contrarian option in the market – something I reckon can outrun the market’s estimation....
David Bridgwater is a smart operator. He’s rolling along at a winning strike rate of 35% with his chasers this term and his ENRICHISSANT is my idea of a bet for the Greatwood Gold Cup at the general 11s....
The 6yo is a pound out of the handicap, but I’m not concerned about that. I’m expecting him to take another big leap forward tomorrow....
He’s only had 3 chases to date, but a wind-op and the application of cheekpieces have seen him produce early performances that tell us he’s going to be a much better chaser than he was hurdler – stones better. He’s certainly going to prove much better than his current rating of 126 – let’s put it that way....
Last time (just over a week ago) he was a hard-held 18-length winner at Huntingdon under a big weight. Tomorrow’s race is a big step up in class and he will need to improve again (he’s gone up 12lb) – but he’s on a real roll, he’s fresh, he’s fit and Bridgwater clearly feels that now is the time to have a crack at some money....
The horse won’t mind the soft underfoot conditions, he only has to carry 10-0 and Brendan Powell is on his back....
Powell and Bridgewater are 10 from 26 in combination with chasers this term. That’s accurate shooting and you can expect this one to be another bullet fired with serious intent....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Greatwood Gold Cup (3.15 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back on Monday with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
