Monday, 9th March 2020
The 4-day Cheltenham Festival gets underway tomorrow afternoon....
Here at ATC, I like to have a crack at bagging the best price possible about my contrarian selections for the big handicap races – so I go out the day before racing with my thoughts....
I also like the way the Festival is set-up – with just one big handicap on Day 1. It means I get to ease into the meeting rather than have to go at things hell-for-leather from the get-go....
The race for me on Day 1 is the G3 Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) over the 3m1f trip and 2- fences on the Old course. A field of 23 goes to post....
But I’ll also be swinging the bat in a sub-standard but wide-open Champion Hurdle – a recipe for a ‘shock’....
If you’re looking for your own bets in the race, you’ve still got time to do the necessary spadework....
Some key stats taken form the historic record will help you split the field and isolate likely contenders....
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15 of the last 19 renewals were won by novice or second-season chasers.... 24 of the previous 28 race winners had won or placed 2nd that season.... All winners since 2000 had recorded best chase RPR over 24f+.... Favourites have produced just 2 winners since 1994.... 41 of the last 45 winners were aged 7- to 10-years-old.... Only 2 of the last 48 runners aged 11+ managed to hit the frame.... 7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear of some description.... 10 of the last 12 winners had already registered a victory over 3m+.... 10 of the last 12 had run within the last 45 days... Irish trainers have won 2 renewals since 2000.... David Pipe has won 3 times since 2008 from just 13 runners.... Prior to 2018 it was 30+ years since a 150+ rated horse won the race.... |
Horses that tick plenty of the right boxes are clearly worth additional examination....
I reckon David Bridgwater’s THE CONDITIONAL is a terrifically well-handicapped horse on an official rating of 139 for tomorrow’s Ultima....
I cannot stress how well-handicapped I think the horse is on that mark. Let’s put it this way, Bridgwater was thinking about no less a race than the Gold Cup for the horse at the turn of the year....
The fact that Bridgwater harboured that kind of aspiration for the horse should tell you that this is no 139 back-number....
Defeat at in the Classic Chase at a short price put shot to the Gold Cup dream. He never got into a rhythm over the Warwick fences. But there was an upside, the official handicapper dropped the horse a very generous 3lbs. It all helps and I reckon the 8yo is rated and weighted to go very close tomorrow afternoon....
You can get 17/2 in places and 8s generally. That’s not a typical price point for this column. I’d like it bigger. But sometimes you have to be pragmatic....
And the truth is that in my book there is a case for The Conditional being shorter in the betting than he is. I can understand why the market likes Kim Bailey’s Vinndication based on what he’s done and what he might do, but he’s up to a mark of 159 and it is not going to be easy for him from there – there’s not going to be much margin for error....
He may turn out to b a 170 horse. Who knows? Good luck to him. But I wouldn’t want to be taking 6s about him proving that tomorrow – which he will need to in order to win....
The bottom line is that I want the really well-handicapped horse. That’s The Conditional and I can just about accept the price about him....
Dan Skelton’s Cobra De Mai is interesting off 142. Very interesting. But with the rain forecast this afternoon, I just worry about the ground for him. Tom George’s Activial was 6th off 151 last year and goes off 145 this time. You could make a case for him going better....
But all things taken together, the other one I want to be with is Venetia Williams’ CEPAGE at a big 18s & 16s generally....
He’s rated 155 but that’s only a pound in excess of the rating he won a Graded handicap off on the New course in January and I am interested in this step up to 3-miles – which might just help him improve again....
All his very good work at the track (he’s a track specialist) has been done on the New course. But no matter. The switch to the Old course is another interesting adjustment. On the Old course speed is favoured over stamina and the trip might not take as much getting as it could have on the New course....
The 8yo is as tough as old boots and I reckon connections believe he will get the trip. I noted after his win at the track in January that Venetia Williams was talking about the Gold Cup as an option for him at this meeting....
He’d have been running for place money there, but here he’s a live contender. And a nice price....
It’s not the strongest Champion Hurdle but it is wide open – and exactly the type of race where a dark horse could well spoil the party for fav-backers....
I think Gordon Elliott’s COEUR SUBLIME might well be underestimated at 16s in places and 14s generally....
He was 2nd in last season’s Triumph behind Pentland Hills – who is a third of his price tomorrow – so we know he handles the occasion and the track.....
But he is bigger in the market than last year’s conqueror for a good reason. He disappointed when last seen at Leopardstown just after Christmas.....
But he’s been rested since then, he’s had a procedure on his wind and there’s a first-time tongue tie fitted tomorrow....
I think the key thing tomorrow for him is the ground. I reckon he’ll appreciate the soft surface more than some of the others....
And he does have the services of Festival maestro Davy Russell who is sure to get the best out of him....
He’s been working well at home. They’re reported to be happy with him. I think he could go better and closer than his price suggests....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50 @ Cheltenham).
In the Champion Hurdle (3.30 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with my contrarian view on Day 2 at the Festival....
In the meantime, enjoy the racing. The Festival only comes around once a year and the years pass swiftly....
Until tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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