Wednesday, 11th March 2020
The value of my going out early with my big-race advice is clearly illustrated by today’s Top Moon bet in the Coral Cup....
This morning the Guardian reports: ‘Top Moon is the one that could be overpriced, although the 33/1 was wiped off the boards during Tuesday afternoon....’
It goes unreported that ATC money is the duster that did the wiping....
ATC is a small and humble service – we fly under the radar. But this is an influential service too in some respects....
I go out earlier than anybody else with my advice and this service frequently acts as an early-warning system on value in the big handicaps....
We are more than capable of shifting the market – whether anybody knows who we are or not....
And when big mainstream tipsters share my view – or, more accurately, come to the same conclusions as I do – they are generally doing so at a lesser price....
Top Moon is a best-priced 20s this morning – with quite a few big and well-known tipsters following us in. None of their followers are on at 33s....
We move on to Day 3....
Things get going for us on Day 3 at the Festival as the action shifts from the Old course to the New course – where the emphasis is more on stamina than speed....
There are three big handicaps for us to target....
At 2.10 there’s the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle – a G3 event over the 3-mile trip with 24 horses going to post....
At 4.10 there’s the G3 Brown Plate Handicap Chase – a G3 event contested over the 2m5f trip with 24 going to post....
And then at 5.30 we have the Kim Muir – a C2 handicap chase contest for amateur riders over the 3m2f trip with another maximum field of 24 going to post....
If you’re looking for the right kind of horse in each race, you’ve still got time to do the necessary spadework....
Some key stats taken form the historic record will help you split the field and isolate likely contenders....
There isn’t room to list all the relevant stats in today’s column. But you can find what you need in the ATC archive – for the Pertemps, the Brown Plate and the Kim Muir....
You know the drill. Horses that tick plenty of the right boxes are clearly worth additional examination....
Hughie Morrison has trained his THIRD WIND specifically for the Pertemps (2.10) and the general 16s is a nice price about a horse that could be very well treated on a mark of 141....
His win last time at Wincanton amounted to easy work and a 4lb rise for that will probably come to be seen in hindsight as pretty generous because I reckon he will improve significantly for the step up in trip to 3-miles....
The 6yo has only been beaten once in his 5 starts over hurdles. Last season’s win in a decent novice hurdle at Sandown in March has worked out very nicely and very much gives the impression that tomorrow’s big field will not faze the horse....
Jonjo O’Neill has won the Pertemps three times this century and his DREAM BERRY is in with a good shout of making it four tomorrow – and I want to be with him tomorrow at the general 25s....
He’s not been without his problems and remans lightly raced despite his age and he’s only been seen once this term – when qualifying for this race with a decent effort at Sandown....
He was giving a ton of weight to a progressive winner that day and the performance represented a solid comeback with the promise of more to come....
The 9yo has a good record in big-field handicaps and has been rated as high as 143. He’s 138 tomorrow and pretty much unexposed over this 3-mile trip. I reckon he could produce a performance a lot better than his price suggests with Jonjo O’Neill Jnr up for the ride....
Warren Greatrex’s LA BAGUE AU ROI hasn’t quite cut the mustard at the top level after going well against some of the top horses as a novice....
Her connections had some big aspirations for her this term – and she was given a sequence of fancies entries. But it hasn’t worked out....
She never looked like getting involved at the business end of things in the Irish Gold Cup last time out. She was in receipt of the mare’s allowance but she was up against some of the top staying chasers on the block and got well beaten....
That said she wasn’t disgraced. She just gave the impression that a lowering of the sights wouldn’t go amiss. That happens tomorrow and she makes for a decent bet at the general 14s & 12s for tomorrow’s Brown Plate (4.10)....
This will be her handicap debut and she is competitively weighted to my eyes on a mark of just 149. She’s stepping back from 3-miles to this 2m5f trip and I reckon that will suit too given that the big-field will ensure that there’s plenty of pace on. She can go well....
Alan King’s DEYRANN DE CARJAC is the other one I want to be with....
He’s been going well during the early stages of his chase career – coming out of assignments at level weights with better-rated horses his reputation enhanced....
Some of his form has a really solid look to it. Particularly his win at Huntingdon in November....
He could have gone for the Novices’ handicap but King has given him this assignment where he is going to meet more experienced horses – but more exposed ones too....
On a rating 145 under the bare 11-0 he looks a real player in what will be his first go in a handicap and the general 16s is more than acceptable....
I backed KILFILUM CROSS for this event last season and he finished 2nd. He ran off 139 that day, he goes off 138 tomorrow and with Mr Alex Edwards back in the plate for a second crack at the race, I’m going to back the 9yo to go one better this time around at a generous enough 12s....
The key to the bet is the last time out performance at Kempton – his 2nd run since wind surgery – which was produced in an eye-catching time....
It marked a much-needed return to form - and it coincided with Henry Oliver’s decision to apply first-time cheekpieces....
The headgear remains in place tomorrow, the Kempton race has provided fresh impetus and momentum and I reckon everything is set up for another big run....
The other one I want to back in this is Dan Skelton’s ARDLETHEN with the talented Gina Andrews in the plate....
He’s a novice but is well thought of by Skelton and has been running in Graded events....
First time in a handicap off 140 is likely a decent time to be catching this 7yo who looks set to be move on to better things. There is some 18s about and plenty of 16s. Nice prices....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (2.10 @ Cheltenham).
In the Brown Plate Handicap Chase (4.10 @ Cheltenham).
In the Kim Muir (5.30 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with my contrarian view on Day 4 at the Festival – another big day that offers a hat-trick of handicaps to shoot at....
In the meantime, enjoy the racing. The Festival only comes around once a year and the years pass swiftly....
Until tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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