Thursday, 12th March 2020
At half-time in the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, one man is miles ahead of the rest – J P McManus. His distinctive green and gold silks are dominating....
Another Champion Hurdle went his way on Tuesday. Yesterday, horses in his ownership recorded a four-timer – regardless of the fact that one of his most fancied runners of the week went down in the Champion Chase....
Good luck to him. I hope his luck continues into today – because we happen to be on one of his in the Pertemps. If you missed my advice for Day 3, you can catch up here....
Here on ATC this morning, the focus is already on Day 4. I like to go out early with my advice – so that I get an opportunity to bag the best of the prices about my contrarian fancies....
Let’s get down to business....
Friday – like today – gives us three big handicap targets to shoot at....
At 2.10 we have the G3 County Hurdle over the 2m1f – with a maximum field of 26 runners heading to post....
At 4.50 we have the G3 Grand Annual Handicap Chase over the extended 2m trip – with 20 set to run....
Then at 5.30 the curtain falls on the meeting with the C2 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle over the extended 2m4f trip – a race which is contested by the conditional jockeys (the apprentices). The tapes will go up on a field of 24....
If you’re looking for the right kind of horse in each race, you’ve still got time to do the necessary spadework....
Some key stats taken form the historic record will help you split the field and isolate likely contenders....
There isn’t room to list all the relevant stats in today’s column. But you can find what you need in the ATC archive – for the County, the Grand Annual and the Martin Pipe....
You know the drill. Horses that tick plenty of the right boxes are clearly worth additional examination....
Nicky Henderson has gone close a few times in the County Hurdle (2.10) and his ADJALI is a nice price at 14s to land him the honours this time around....
He didn’t live up to his market price on handicap debut at Ascot early on in the season but he didn’t disgrace himself either – managing to get within 8-lengths of the winner....
Connections clearly weren’t happy with him and he had his wind done a few days later, suggesting that there was a problem – maybe one he’d been carrying since his juvenile season when he didn’t quite progress as first promised....
He hasn’t been seen since that Ascot race and I suspect he’s been kept back for this assignment. On a mark of 140 he is potentially very well-treated. He is certainly one that could be 10lb ahead of the handicapper and at the price he is worth support....
Nicky Henderson will have to have him fit fist time up. But it won’t be the first time he’s sent a competitive runner into the County off a long break and noises coming out of the yard are positive enough....
SAINT ROI is the other one to be with at the 14s. Willie Mullins and Barry Geraghty combine on the J P McManus-owned 5yo who turns out off the back of a 70-day+ break – exactly the type of animal Mullins has done well with at previous Festivals in handicap hurdle events....
The British handicapper has him up at 137 as compared to his Irish rating of 133 – but, even so, it’s a nice mark from which to begin life in handicaps and he is going to prove a lot better than that. A lot better. Not many in tomorrow’s race are going to be so generously handicapped....
He will need to show that tomorrow. The downside is that he lacks experience but he’s here because he’s showing Mullins something at home and the 14s factors in the doubts....
The Grand Annual (4.50) is a trappy little race for value seekers with several of the right sorts in at the top of the market and plenty of exposed types and horses with questions to answer further down the price order....
The one that has some appeal at the prices is Henry De Bromhead’s JAN MAAT at 20s with Rachael Black more up....
He doesn’t leap off the page at you, but he is an unexposed type, progressing over fences and he can race handy (never a bad thing in this contest)...
Plus, he stays a bit further than the bare 2-miles which won’t be a hinderance tomorrow....
He’s been off for a while and has clearly been aimed at spring targets. He has gone well fresh in the past and De Bromhead’s horses are going well at the moment. I expect him to be in the right shape....
They might have expected the ground to be a little better than it is going to be but it isn’t heavy and there isn’t a huge amount of rain beyond possible showers forecast....
Even with the ground taken into consideration, I think this improving 7yo is underestimated at the price....
Front View represents last season’s winning team – comprising J P McManus, Joseph O’Brien and Jonjo O’Neill Jnr. They are favourite for the Martin Pipe (5.30) at 5s....
Fair enough. But they got beat 6-lengths off levels by the Willie Mullins horse FIVE O’CLOCK last time at Thurles – and he won the race looking really impressive....
For sure, he is 6lbs worse off at the weights tomorrow – but at 16s he is more than three times the price of the favourite and I reckon that’s silly....
The other one I like for this is Dan Skelton’s FLASH THE STEEL at 16s. I reckon he’s been laid out for this....
He’s only had two runs this term. The first was an impressive winning effort off the back off his summer break at Chepstow. Next time he looked awful at Haydock – getting smashed in a G3 handicap....
But that last effort was over 3m, he clearly didn’t stay and tomorrow’s step back will be right up his street....
He looks well-handicapped to me on 138, first time cheekpieces will just help him settle that bit better and for my money he is a big player at a nice price....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the County Hurdle (2.10 @ Cheltenham).
In the Grand Annual (4.50 @ Cheltenham).
In the Martin Pipe (5.30 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter on Saturday....
In the meantime, enjoy the racing. The Festival only comes around once a year and the years pass swiftly....
Until tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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