Friday, 13th March 2020
The Cheltenham Festival is a war of nerves as much as anything else....
It’s a fight with the fates that unfolds over the 4-days. It isn’t over until it’s over – but whilst it’s going on it drags you through the good the bad and the ugly. You see it all – ups, downs, good luck, bad luck and no luck at all....
We head into day 4 a bit like the Grand Old Duke of York’s men on the hillside – neither up nor down thanks to a winner on Day 1 and nothing in between times....
We went close to pulling away yesterday with Kilfilum Cross in the Kim Muir. Third Wind ran a cracker and hit the frame in the Pertemps....
But going close, going well and running a cracker in defeat don’t get the job done. Both horses probably ran the races of their lives to date and still found one or more too good....
That’s the Festival for you. Nobody said it was easy. But heading into the last day we are still on our feet and still very much in with a shout of heading out of the meeting with a profit. We’ve got it all to play for....
It will turn out as it is written. In the meantime, there’s a good race at Uttoxeter tomorrow in the shape of the Midlands Grand National (3.35) where 14 go to post....
It’s a funny old race with 40lbs the difference between top-rated Ladbrokes Trophy winner De Rasher Counter and bottom-rated Financial Outcome.
Five of the 14 runners are out of the weights – the last-named horse to the tune of a full stone. You don’t see that too often....
But regardless of these circumstances and the conditions (heavy going) the job is to isolate the value – the horse the market is overlooking or underestimating at the prices....
And the one that appeals is Dan Skelton’s VERY FIRST TIME at 14s....
The 8yo is a much-improved horse – winning three of his last four races and going up to the rankings to the tune of 22lb as a result and there could be more to come yet off a still very reasonable mark of 127....
He effectively runs off 131 tomorrow – in other words he is 4lbs ‘wrong’ at the weights. But I’m not as concerned about that in this type of grinding contest as I would be over a shorter trip. I think the horse could have a ton more improvement in him for the 4m2f slog....
He stays really well and I reckon he’s got a big chance. He was well-fancied for the Eider at Newcastle which got abandoned. Here, he seems to have been written off a little more readily than I think he should be....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Midlands Grand National (3.35 @ Uttoxeter).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back in your inbox next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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