Monday, 15th June 2020
It’s Monday afternoon of Royal Ascot week....
There’s no time for messing about or dawdling. I’m on the meter and I need to keep moving....
Let’s get down to business and step into the week by consulting our intelligence bulletin....
An intelligence bulletin might contain all manner of information – its scope limited only by the producer’s imagination....
But information is a funny thing. While too little is a curse, too much is just confusing. Getting the balance right is key....
Ahead of big race days, I consult specific self-generated data that tells me things the rest of the market probably isn’t aware of....
It doesn’t tell me everything or point me directly at specific bets. It simply provides me with some wider context going into races....
Form yards -------
Only a brave man would bet against John Gosden banking winners this week. He’s on a roll with 12 across 7-days.
Richard Hannon (12), Ralph Beckett (7) and Roger Varian (7) are also flying....
Bare wins don’t tell the whole story. I also use total place strike rates when taking a view on ‘right-now’ form....
Here’s that 7-day table....
In the plate -------
Over the last 3-years in decent races (C1 & C2) up the Ascot straight – regardless of field size....
And around the Berkshire turns – with the same parameters in place....
Rolling twenty -------
Tomorrow’s Buckingham Palace Handicap (1.15) sees 24 goes to post....
To determine potential draw bias, I look at the last 20 handicap races run up the straight (regardless of distance) with 20+ runners going to post....
On that quick and dirty test, I’d have preference for middle (with a positive impact value of 1.2) and high over low. But the figures are not such that I’d get too dogmatic about it....
There’s a bit of rain forecast for Ascot overnight. As well as a possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow morning and bits of rain throughout racing....
It complicates things a little. We can’t know quite how much rain might fall how it might affect the track....
You could wait until just before the off to put your bets on. That way, you’ll be in possession of all the latest information. Your call....
But this column goes out ahead of time in the hope of bagging the best prices about my selections. I stick to seeking out the right type of horse – whatever else might or might not happen in-between-times....
I always like a horse I can’t pronounce let alone spell. I reckon such horses are probably under-bet. The in-form Richard Hannon’s MOTAKHAYYEL – an improving winner of three from five races – is a case in point....
Up at 14s right now, I see him as a player tomorrow. I think the Royal Hunt Cup was his objective. But he turns out here. I think connections are anticipating slower ground and taking the view that 7f might be the right trip for the 4yo in those circumstances....
Hamdan Al Maktoum has four engaged in the race. Retained rider Jim Crowley is on this one. There should be more to come from him. Abd a win first-time-up last term encourages the view that he can give his running on seasonal return....
I’m having a few quid on Ian Williams’ new recruit MANCINI at the general 14s and 16s....
I think he ran a cracking trial for this race up at Haydock last time over the 2m trip. He hit the front and got headed but then stayed on really nicely in the closing stages....
The 2m4f trip in tomorrow’s race looks like it will prove ideal with that run under his belt....
That was his first go for Ian Williams who hit a couple of winners last week and who won this race last year with The Grand Visir with his other runner Time To Study back in third....
It wouldn’t be the first time that owner Dr Marwan Koukash and Ian Williams have combined to potent effect in a big staying race on a recently transferred horse – think Magic Circle in the 2018 Chester Cup....
And I like the booking of William Buick for riding duties....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Buckingham Palace Handicap (1.15 @ Ascot).
In the Ascot Stakes (4.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 2 at Royal Ascot....
All the best.
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