Tuesday, 16th June 2020
Throughout lockdown, it seemed this day would never dawn – Tuesday, 16th June. But it has. All good things come to those who wait....
Royal Ascot 2020 kicks off this afternoon. No crowds. No Royal family. No cock-eyed dignitaries. No hats. No fashion pundits. No celebrity interviews. No bad thing if you ask me....
One good thing about racing behind closed doors is that the focus is where it should always be – on the racing....
I sent out my thoughts on today yesterday. That’s how we work at ATC. We’re almost always 24-hours in advance. If you missed yesterday’s advice – catch up here....
Before we get to tackling the handicaps on Day 2, let’s get some valuable context and direction by turning the focus onto intelligence and data....
Yard form -----
There was racing yesterday and our 7-day form table has changed to reflect that.....
In terms of outright wins, John Gosden is still top man. Ralph Beckett has got his lot in red-hot form. William Haggas – ever a master of timing – is managing his form curve just right heading into the Royal meeting....
The total place percentage table – which offers a better view of overall consistency in my view – looks like this....
Along with big guns, Gosden and Haggas, Ed Dunlop, Charlie Appleby and Archie Watson head into Day 1 of the Royal meeting operating at 50%+. They’re all bang in form....
Big race stats -----
The Royal Hunt Cup is the big feature for handicap fans tomorrow. A field of 23 will emerge from the stalls. Key stats produced over almost last two decades will help you split the field....
Seventeen of the last 18 winners had already won at a mile or further.... Fifteen of the last 18 winners were aged either 4- or 5-years-old. So too were 41 of the last 55 placers....
Seven of the last nine winners were drawn 11 or higher. Six were drawn 20+. Of the last 27 placers just two emerged from a single digit stall. High is better than middle is better than low....
John Best’s PLANTADREAM is the horse for me in this one tomorrow at a general 25s & 22s. I wouldn’t put you off backing him each-way if that’s your game....
He went up a stone for his win at Lingfield earlier in the month and he could be anything. He turns out here for just his second go on turf and his second go in a handicap....
He has the profile of a fast-improving horse that might still be well ahead of the handicapper....
He absolutely smashed them at Lingfield. For sure that was just a class 4 – but he quickened up and pulled well clear despite taking a keen hold early in the game....
I reckon he could be up to this level and now is a good time to catch him at a price....
I’m going in on Charlie Hills’ pair – AFAAK at 16s and POGO at 20s....
Afaak won the race first-time-up last term off 104. He’s 106 this time around but runs effectively off the same mark with top claimer Cieren Fallon taking 3lb off....
Charlie Hills reports the horse looking better in his coat than last year and he simply has to have a good chance of going in again at a more than fair 16s....
Pogo has already been out this term and started in good heart and encouraging fashion at Newmarket where he came late and was just held over 7f....
That was a joint career best top first time up. He should come on for it. The juice in the ground will suit and a mile will see him to better effect than 7f....
He’s got every chance of producing a career-best effort tomorrow and will have a fitness edge on quite a few. The 20s is a fair price....
He’s got a poor record on the face of it at Ascot – but I reckon you can make excuses each time. Trip, going, no kind of a run, racing older handicappers as a 3yo. Nothing has gone right for him....
A mile on non-extreme ground and a little luck in running will tell us the truth on his Ascot credentials.....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1.15 @ Ascot).
In the Royal Hunt Cup (3.35 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 3 at Royal Ascot....
All the best.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
