Wednesday, 17th June 2020
It’s always nice to get a winner on the board. That job got done yesterday in the Buckingham Palace Handicap....
I know some of you followed me in. Very wise (isn’t hindsight a wonderful tool?). If you do your own selections (I know most do), I hope you hit something....
It’s Day 2 today. The Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap and the Royal Hunt Cup – two big-field contests up the straight mile – are the betting races for me....
I sent my thoughts on Day 2 yesterday. We’re always 24-hours ahead of the game here at ATC. If you missed the Day 2 advice, catch up here....
Let’s get down to business with Day 3. We start with a little contextual intelligence....
The 7-day form table is always evolving. One day’s performances and results get added. Another day’s drop off....
What we get is a snapshot of who is going best over the last few days. We learn who is on a roll and who has gone cold....
That information doesn’t guarantee winners (what does?) or even good bets. But we frequently know more about what’s what than the people we are betting against – and that’s an edge in the market....
Yard form -----
Every day I look at the top dozen men (with at least a dozen runners over the last 7-days) in terms of winners and then I take a look at total place strike rates to determine the most consistent of those volume producers....
It’s quick. It’s dirty. You can argue with the method or the logic or the conclusions. But that’s how I do it. And I share what I’ve got....
Here’s how it looks this morning. John Gosden remains at the pinnacle. You’d expect William Haggas to be firing one or two in. Archie Watson is the wildcard right now – going better than most punters would probably be aware of on a TP% of 50%....
Big race stats -----
Day 3 is one for the 3yos – at least where the handicaps are concerned....
The Britannia (colts & geldings), the Sandringham (fillies) and the one-off Golden Gates Handicap are all specifically for 3yo runners....
Given that the focus is on 3yo runners, here’s a question: who habitually does best with handicappers of that age at this specific Royal meeting? The table below provides the answer from 2011+....
Clearly, nobody has managed to dominate over the period. And there’s little in the way of sustained consistency. Plenty of yards have had winners in the 3yo Royal handicaps. None have managed to make a habit of it....
Hughie Morrison has done well with limited runners. Overall, with total place strike rates of 30%+ it is the big, well-funded and perennially well-supplied yards of Saeed Bin Suroor, William Haggas, Aiden O’Brien and John Gosden that show up best of all....
Perhaps that’s how it should be at the biggest and best turf meeting of them all?
We’ve already seen that Archie Watson’s string is going as well as just about anybody’s at the moment....
The Lambourn man is in great form and his GALLASIDE looks a nice price for this at a general 18s....
He was a big strapping individual as a 2yo and won three on the bounce before bombing out at Nottingham on his final appearance as a juvenile....
Back end ground? The end of a long season? The trip? Who knows? He’s back at the 10f trip for this tomorrow and I reckon it is far too early to write him off at it....
He will have grown into his strength a little over the winter. I know they think a lot of him at home. I know Hollie Doyle has been looking forward to him as a 3yo. I know he’s been working well. And you can’t argue with the way the yard is performing. It’s a nice price....
I want to be two against the field in this one and the in-form Roger Varian’s KHALOOSY at 12s appeals as a likely type with Hamdan Al Maktoum’s retained rider Jim Crowley on top and starting out in the right kind of stall....
He was very impressive when winning at Wolverhampton by 4.5 lengths in November – travelling strong, going clear and being eased before hitting the line....
He’s been given a starting mark of 94. I’d expect him to leave that well behind in time. He can get started on that assignment tomorrow....
Of course, he’s up against similarly unexposed and classy types. But he’s up at a half-decent price – and in my book that makes all the difference....
I don’t know about you, but I’m the kind of punter to swing the bat at a price if I believe a horse hasn’t to date – for whatever reason – shown its true quality....
That’s why I’ll be backing John Gosden’s ESHASSY – with Robert Havlin up – at the general 28s & 25s....
Another Hamdan Al Maktoum owned horse, he was considered good enough to represent Gosden in the G3 Solario Stakes last term (a race Gosden has won multiple times, so he knows what it takes)....
The horse bombed out. And he did so again at Newmarket before stumps were pulled on the season....
He shows up here having been gelded – and they clearly haven’t given up on him yet. Rated 90, I reckon this half-brother to Galileo Gold will prove to be a good degree better than that mark.....
John Gosden’s African Dream is set to go up to a mark of 96 the other side of Royal Ascot but runs off just 80 tomorrow – explaining why she’s seen as an odds-on good thing by the market....
Latch onto her if you want to be on the tail end of the conga if or when she justifies the short price....
Me? Not a chance. On principal as much as anything else....
What I was wondering about was why Andrea Atzeni isn’t riding Waliyak for Roger Varian. It surely can’t be that he can’t get the pound off to do 8-4 given that he’s riding AL RASMAH for Richard Fahey doing 8-5....
I can only assume it is Atzeni’s relationship with Al Rasmah’s owner that gets him the ride on that – given that Tony Hamilton is on-track. And that Varian is happy for Atzeni to jump ship for the race – giving David Egan the Varian ride....
Whatever, Al Rasmah has a fitness edge over a few of these and is well-drawn to make use of the lead Varian’s horse might provide....
She stayed when going the mile at Haydock and should come on for that run. I think she’s a nice price at 16s....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Golden Gates Handicap (1.15 @ Ascot).
In the Britannia (4.10 @ Ascot).
In the Sandringham (4.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 4 at Royal Ascot....
All the best.
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