Thursday, 18th June 2020
The ground is softening up at Ascot....
There’s been 11mm of rain since racing finished yesterday afternoon – and it is still raining now. The official going is described this morning as good to soft....
With more rain still forecast throughout the rest of the morning and well into the afternoon, that official going description is likely to be soft at some point today – probably straight after the first race....
It’s not what you expect in June. But when you get an April like June and a May like August, we perhaps shouldn’t be surprised when we get a June like the back end of October....
In any case, it’s only water. But it does make the job a bit more complicated when you’re working in advance as I do – because you’re trying to predict the weather as well as the outcome of races.....
But nobody said this game was easy. And it would be no fun at all if it were. So, no complaints from me. It is what it is....
I sent my thoughts on Day 3 yesterday. We’re always 24-hours ahead of the game here at ATC. If you missed the Day 3 advice, catch up here....
Let’s get down to business with Day 4. We start with a look at the updated 7-day form table that tells us which yards are on a hot streak with their runners....
The 7-day form table is always evolving. One day’s performances and results get added. Another day’s drop off....
What we get is a snapshot of who is going best over the last few days. We learn who is on a roll and who has gone cold....
That information doesn’t guarantee winners (what does?) or even good bets. But we frequently know more about what’s what than the people we are betting against – and that’s an edge in the market....
Yard form -----
Every day I look at the top dozen men (with at least a dozen runners over the last 7-days) in terms of winners and then I take a look at total place strike rates to determine the most consistent of those volume producers....
It’s quick. It’s dirty. You can argue with the method or the logic or the conclusions. But that’s how I do it. And I share what I’ve got....
Here’s how it looks this morning. John Gosden is still right up there. But William Haggas has displaced him at the very top of the total place percentage listings.
You have to take your hat off. Despite all the disruption and all the imponderables presented by the delayed start to the season, the best men in the country have got it absolutely right and have their horses going great guns. The cream always rises to the top....
John Quinn has run into a bit form over the last week. Michael Appley sneaks into the Dirty Dozen standings for the first time this term....
So far in the handicaps -----
We’re six handicaps into the meeting – almost halfway where our niche races are concerned – and if you were looking for the top yard at this stage only two names leap off the page....
Roger Varian has had a winner and two places from four qualifying runners to date. The downside with him is that the market has been on the ball....
Mark Johnston is probably more interesting from a betting perspective. His thirteen handicappers at the meeting to date have produced a winner and five places....
The placers have gone in at 16s, 18s, 22s and 22s. His handicappers are going better than the market cares to believe this week....
What has already happened is, of course, no guarantee of what will happen next. But it is as good an indication as any....
KEEP BUSY is up at 12s for tomorrow’s Palace of Holyroodhouse at 1.15 – and that’s the one for me....
It’s not the kind of price I usually go for, but when the underfoot surface softens the viable betting options reduce in number and the market (which is not stupid) quickly moves to squeeze the most likely types that bit shorter....
That’s the case here. But the 12s is acceptable within context. The horse has form on heavy ground and, as we’ve seen, trainer John Quinn’s going very nicely right now. We can expect the 3yo to turn out ready to give his best....
Top claimer Cieren Fallon takes 3lb off. That’s a bonus. So too is a starting berth of stall 21. There is plenty to like....
The Duke of Edinburgh at 4.40 has been one of the easier Royal Ascot handicaps for the market to predict over the last couple of decades. It hasn’t paid to be too ambitious....
I don’t ordinarily let that kind of thing put me off. I’m ambitious by nature. But I’ve pulled in my horns a little for this one and I’m going to pin my colours to Archie Watson’s MEDAL WINNER at 10s with the champ Oisin Murphy up....
The 4yo is lightly-raced, unexposed, improving with every race since being gelded, stepping up in trip and there’s every chance he is going to improve again tomorrow....
He was impressive enough at Newcastle earlier this month – doing enough and giving the impression he was never anywhere near fully extended....
He’s up 6lbs to 96 – that’s close to the optimum mark for this race over the years. He gets in carrying 9-1 and getting weight from everything in the field. That’s no bad things given conditions. And he starts in a high stall....
He is a fair bet at the price....
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Palace of Holyroodhouse (1.15 @ Ascot).
In the Duke of Edinburgh (4.40 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 5 at Royal Ascot....
All the best.
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