Wednesday, 8th July 2020
We had the Guineas in June and the Epsom classics in July….
Now we move onto the Dante races at York – normally run in May – and a July meeting at Newmarket that pretty much occupies its usual place in proceedings and covers pretty much the expected ground….
It’s a topsy-turvy schedule – and it’s a cramped one – but the right races are getting run one way or another….
This week we have several big days of racing ahead of us….
On Thursday, we’ve got Newmarket and York….
On Friday, we’re at Newmarket….
Then on Saturday, it is Newmarket again supported by Ascot….
There are big handicap races for us to target on each of the 3-days. So, it’s one of those busy weeks in the calendar where finding bets takes precedence over the no-less vital and important research and analysis….
The race that interests me most tomorrow is the 3.35 at Newmarket – the bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap). This is a C2 race over the 6f trip for horses aged 3yo….
Handicaps exclusively for 3yo runners is something of a theme this week at Newmarket….
There’s a similar such 10f event for 3yo horses on Friday. And another one over the mile trip on Saturday. And, of course, 3yos can also go in Saturday’s Bunbury Cup over the 7f trip….
Over the years one yard has done significantly better than the others in these 3yo handicap races – the yard of Andrew Balding….
His record from 2009+ at Newmarket’s July meeting in such races stands as follows….
A good level of winners supported by decent places adds up to a sustained record of achievement….
Had you backed all his qualifying runners since the 2009 July meeting to the tune of 1pt e/w then level-stakes profits would currently stand at 56.24 points. Balding has been a good call for punters in this specific group of races….
And that profit is to SP. Chances are that in the early-morning markets, on the exchanges or betting to Betfair SP, you’d be looking at a much-improved surplus....
Of course, what happened before is no cast-iron guarantee of what will transpire later this week. But these numbers go beyond anything that might be considered anomalous. They grow out of intention….
Balding clearly aims at these races with likely runners and is effective at getting a performance out of them when he does….
If Balding has a decent 3yo handicapper in his care, this is a meeting he has targeted effectively with such horses in previous seasons. It is reasonable to anticipate that this year will be no different….
Balding has won this race three times over the last 10-years – with horses that had recently shown up to good effect in some other valuable big field handicap….
Foxtrot Lady, Dashing Star and Fireback had all already run with distinction in a similar such event before coming out on top here….
SPANISH ANGEL – who runs for Balding tomorrow and who can be backed at a general 20s – doesn’t tick that box….
But this season is a bit different and I’m not going to make the Balding horse stand to the trend….
He’s still a Balding horse running in a specific race that Balding targets effectively and running within a specific division that Balding generally excels within at the meeting….
In other words, the 3yo ticks a few boxes anyway – and his price might well be considered bonus when looked at with a degree of hindsight. He can run a much bigger race tomorrow afternoon than the prices suggest….
And I wouldn’t put you off playing each-way at the price – if that that’s the way you like to play….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Newmarket @ 3.35).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the Friday action at Newmarket. Stay tuned....
All the best.