Thursday, 9th July 2020
Men like John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute and William Haggas appear regularly in our 7-day form tables heading into the big meetings….
(Note: any trainer with 12 runners over the last 7-day period qualifies for inclusion in our form table. We publish the rankings and performance data related to the Top-12).
Such is their talent and the talent of the horses at their disposal, they rarely appear to be out-of-form….
Truth be told, they do go in and out of form. They do have peaks and troughs. They do have quiet periods ahead of gearing up once again for a big meeting or another big series of races….
But even then, their performance figures tend not to dip too far below the best of the rest. Compared to the rest, they are in-form when out-of-form….
Ahead of big meetings this week at York, at Newmarket and at Ascot, we expect to see all three big guns somewhere on our table. And they are – see below….
The noteworthy instance would be when one of those big names slips off the table….
That would be a situation worth looking at closely. But, right now, all is as it should be. It is business as usual for all three men as we head into the business half of the week….
That’s worth knowing. So too the fact that Clive Cox has run into a purple patch that sees him sitting atop our leader board with a total place percentage of 64.7% from his 17 runners across the last week. He’s in fine form. So too Richard Spencer (53.8% from 13).
With 36 and 34 runners respectively across the last 7 days, and total place percentages of 52.8% and 47.1% across the period, perhaps it is Roger Varian and Andrew Balding who head into the week’s biggest races with their strings in the brightest form….
Racing starts at Newmarket this afternoon. I’m playing in the 6f handicap for the 3yos. If you missed my selection for the race, you can catch up here….
Tomorrow, the big betting race for me is the bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) at 3.00. It’s a C2 event for horses aged 4yo+ over the 1m6f trip….
In an ordinary year, this is the most valuable handicap going right-handed for horses that need this kind of trip….
And the race can point to horses that might well come into the reckoning for next month’s Ebor at York….
A field of 17 goes to post for tomorrow’s renewal. Straight away I think it’s worth looking at how each sire with a runner in tomorrow’s race tends to do in C1 and C2 events at 13 to 15 furlongs. I don’t know what we will find. But that is why I look….
Interesting that Australia comes out on top. He’s developing a solid record with his runners in the best events at 13f to 15f. That said he’s hitting the frame plenty more than he wins and over the longer period – with more qualifying runners and a more impressive ratio of winners to placers – it is Frankel and Dubawi who do best of all….
Whether or not any of this helps King’s Advice, Ghostwatch or Dubai Future in tomorrow’s race remains to be seen – but on the performance stats (2009+) of their respective sires they have the edge as it stands….
The market fancies the relatively unexposed 4yo runners – with four of those sitting in T5 market positions – including one that hasn’t been seen for 428 days and another who hadn’t been seen for 611 days before no-showing at Newmarket last month….
Of course, horses can win off long breaks. They can also bounce back from poor performances. This is horse racing – nothing is off the menu. But I wouldn’t be wanting to take single-figure prices about such horses in a competitive race like this….
My preference is to back something that looks underestimated at the price and Mark Johnston’s STAR OF THE EAST at 14s is a box ticker in that respect….
The 6yo tends to reserve a lot of his best work for this track. He’s won here twice from three runs – both wins coming over tomorrow’s trip – and he’s done it on ground with bounce and ground with cut….
He runs off just 92 tomorrow and that’s handy. For a start he’s due to go up 2lbs after the race – and this is a horse won a handicap over course and distance off 95. He’s simply got to be weighted to go well tomorrow….
The 6yo missed the whole of last season through injury. But he looks to have recovered from whatever was wrong with him. He’s already had a couple of runs to blow the cobwebs away this term. You can write the first run off as needed. The second was much more promising – and he was last off the bridle….
I think he’s a nice price at 14s. And a live horse at a nice price is what it’s all about for me….
I’m sticking with Mark Johnston in the 3.35 – the bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) for the 3yo horses over 10f….
The Yorkshire handler has a cracking record at this meeting in the round handicaps and his OVERWRITE looks a fair bet at 12s tomorrow – stepping up to the 10f trip for the first time after two good runs at a mile under his belt so far this term….
Andrea Atzeni was chosen for the Windsor assignment last time out. This time it is Frankie Dettori who gets the call – no stranger to either Mark Johnston or owner Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum….
If it is a case of pick the right tool for the job, then there are few sharper tools in the box than Dettori. The horse kept on strong under Atzeni at Windsor and he can improve for the step up to 10f. Dettori has been handed the job of seeing to it that he does….
In tandem at this meeting Dettori and Johnston are 4 wins and 3 places from 12 runners. Two of the winners were produced from three collaborations last year….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) (3.00 @ Newmarket).
In the bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (3.35 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the weekend action. Stay tuned....
All the best.
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