Friday, 10th July 2020
We’ve got good racing to look forward to tomorrow afternoon – with quality cards at Newmarket and at Ascot….
Ahead of all that – I’m involved in races this afternoon at Newmarket. If you missed that, catch up here….
Tomorrow, I’m interested in two races from a betting perspective….
The Bunbury Cup (4.10 @ Newmarket) over the 7f trip – a field of 20 goes to post….
And the Betfred Heritage Handicap (3.50 @ Ascot) over the 5f trip – in which 19 take part….
I’ll let you know what I’ve backed in both those races shortly. First, intelligence you can put to good use….
The thing about a 7-day form table is that it looks different every morning….
Every new day delivers a fresh tranche of races – producing new winners and new placers. And this fresh data overwrites data that has aged beyond the 7-day cut-off point….
Trainers rise and fall according to these 24-hour rhythms. What the table looks like on Tuesday morning can look different again as Thursday dawns….
To keep on top of it, you need to check the snapshot frequently. Here’s what the T12 on the 7-day form table looks like this morning – for reference….
Stoute’s doing well without running too many. Clive Cox ditto. The guys with TP% at 40%+ whilst running horses in volume are Richard Hannon, Andrew Balding and David O’Meara. For me, they are the yards on song….
If you’re looking for a yard that might be overlooked in handicap markets this weekend, think Richard Fahey….
Since June 1st Fahey is 21 winners from 271 runners @ 7.4%....
Placers weigh in at an additional 50 for an overall total place strike rate of 25.8%....
I reckon Fahey would have been hoping for better. He’s certainly used to doing better….
The market is quite cool on his handicap runners right now. But there are signs of life….
Over the last week, Fahey’s fired in a winner at 20s and placers at 16s, 16s, 25s, 33s and 40s – in handicaps at all classes….
In other words, quite a few of Fahey’s handicappers have significantly out-performed market expectation. It could be a sign that his handicappers sent off at big prices are worth investigating over the next couple of days….
No other track in the country offers as many opportunities to run horses in £25k+ handicaps up a straight as does Ascot….
And because there are so many such races up the Ascot straight, we’ve got a back-history of useful data to work with – information that might help us….
A field of 19 horses go to post tomorrow. We already know from the work we did at Royal Ascot that high stall numbers have had the edge in recent times up the straight….
Now I want to know which of tomorrow’s riders goes best in the £25k+ straight handicaps at the Berkshire track – with 16+ runners in the field. I want to know who has the best record in those circumstances. Details below….
What’s clear straight away is that with a lot of the big boys down at Newmarket, jockeys that wouldn’t be first in line for big Ascot handicaps are getting a crack of the whip this weekend – the young, the up-and-coming and the journeymen….
Plenty of tomorrow’s riders lack experience in valuable big-field Ascot handicaps. It doesn’t mean they can’t win. Just that they will need to overcome that inexperience….
Easier said than done, of course. Getting a position, travelling into the race at the right time, knowing when and where to press the button, not riding a finish too soon – these things take both time and rides to master….
The flip side of the coin is this: the senior jockeys like Andrea Atzeni, Daniel Tudhope and Hayley Turner that do have experience of not only riding big-field handicaps at Ascot – but winning and placing in them reasonably regularly – surely represent an advantage to the right handicapper tomorrow afternoon?
We can talk all day – looking at this, figuring out that and seeking guidance from every angle. But the clock is always running and sooner or later we need to come to a betting decision – one way or another. And I have come to mine….
In the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket, I’m backing ARIGATO at 12s. This is a big step-up in class but the 5yo is in fabulous form right now – having won twice since resumption. This race has been the plan for trainer William Jarvis….
I’m also backing Mark Johnston’s CARDSHARP at 25s with James Doyle up. The 5yo likes this track, he’s 4lb below his last winning mark, and he’s 8lb lower than when 4th in this race in 2018 – beaten just a length under tomorrow’s rider. Doyle’s only been on Cardsharp once since – and this could be a redemption script in the writing….
Paul Midgley is a smart operator in the sprints and I’m backing I AM A DREAMER at 18s in the Betfred Heritage Handicap at Ascot. Midgley inherited the horse from Mark Johnston. He got a win out of him on his second run for the yard. That got the 4yo put up to 88 and he sneaks in here at the bottom of the weights. He also drops back to 5f for the first time since his juvenile days and I notice that this is easily the best race he’s contested for years. Joe Fanning obviously knows the horse and Midgley has booked him. This could be a big run….
The other one I’m backing is MOUNTAIN PEAK at 12s under Andrea Atzeni. He’s up to 95 now after winning a C3 at Haydock a fortnight back, but he’s an improved sprinter this term, he’s in form, he’s fit, and he can progress again. He’s drawn high and Atzeni will be a real boost to his chances. I expect him to go close indeed….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bunbury Cup (4.10 @ Newmarket).
In the Betfred Heritage Handicap (3.50 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight, analysis, and intelligence. Stay tuned....
All the best.
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