Friday, 17th July 2020
It’s John Smith’s Cup weekend at York. Tomorrow afternoon at 2.30, a field of 22 will go at it over the extended 10f trip….
Ordinarily, this is the richest 10f handicap prize in Britain. The pot is down this year, but the race will be no less competitive….
Like me, you’re probably looking for a bet….
A good first step is to establish how specific yards are performing headed into the weekend….
I like to look at how yards have performed with their runners over the previous week….
The table below highlights the 7-day record of yards that have had at least a dozen runners over the period. I’m not sure it tells us very much….
|
Trainer |
W |
P |
TP |
R |
TP% |
|
John Gosden |
5 |
7 |
12 |
24 |
50.0 |
|
Sir Michael Stoute |
0 |
5 |
5 |
11 |
45.5 |
|
Mark Johnston |
14 |
5 |
19 |
48 |
39.6 |
|
David O'Meara |
4 |
4 |
8 |
21 |
38.1 |
|
Roger Varian |
3 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
37.5 |
|
Saeed bin Suroor |
3 |
4 |
7 |
19 |
36.8 |
|
William Haggas |
3 |
3 |
6 |
17 |
35.3 |
|
Andrew Balding |
4 |
4 |
8 |
23 |
34.8 |
|
Ed Walker |
1 |
3 |
4 |
12 |
33.3 |
|
Jim Goldie |
2 |
6 |
8 |
24 |
33.3 |
|
Roger Fell |
1 |
5 |
6 |
18 |
33.3 |
|
Charles Hills |
3 |
1 |
4 |
17 |
23.5 |
|
Nigel Tinkler |
3 |
0 |
3 |
15 |
20.0 |
|
Tim Easterby |
3 |
3 |
6 |
33 |
18.2 |
|
Keith Dalgleish |
1 |
1 |
2 |
20 |
10.0 |
|
Mick Channon |
0 |
1 |
1 |
16 |
6.3 |
Plenty of the big yards are represented. And the figures suggest they’ve all found their feet six weeks into resumption….
If we indulge in a bit of fine tuning and strip out all the C5 and C6 rubbish from the numbers, we get a slightly different picture. One based on less overall data – but one that nevertheless provides a snapshot of who has been doing what in the better-quality events contested by the better-quality horses….
|
Trainer |
W |
P |
TP |
R |
TP% |
|
William Haggas |
3 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
41.7 |
|
David O'Meara |
1 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
37.5 |
|
John Gosden |
3 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
37.5 |
|
Saeed bin Suroor |
2 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
37.5 |
|
Andrew Balding |
2 |
2 |
4 |
11 |
36.4 |
|
Sir Michael Stoute |
0 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
33.3 |
|
Roger Varian |
1 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
30.0 |
|
Mark Johnston |
7 |
0 |
7 |
24 |
29.2 |
|
Roger Fell |
0 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
25.0 |
|
Charles Hills |
0 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
11.1 |
|
Tim Easterby |
0 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
11.1 |
C5 and C6 races are padding. Winning any number of them yesterday, today, or tomorrow, doesn’t translate to winning top races….
The yards doing it against the better horses for the better money are better placed….
It doesn’t lead us directly to a bet. But where yards are on the immediate form curve is something worth knowing….
Something else I like to be aware of….
How have tomorrow’s jockeys done when riding the left-handed turns course at York in big fields (14+) (C4 or better) (Hcp & non-hcp). Figures appear in the table below….
|
Jockey |
W |
P |
TP |
R |
TP% |
|
James Doyle |
12 |
11 |
23 |
64 |
35.9 |
|
Daniel Tudhope |
10 |
28 |
38 |
134 |
28.4 |
|
William Buick |
10 |
6 |
16 |
70 |
22.9 |
|
Frankie Dettori |
9 |
16 |
25 |
72 |
34.7 |
|
Ben Curtis |
4 |
8 |
12 |
50 |
24.0 |
|
Joe Fanning |
3 |
8 |
11 |
76 |
14.5 |
|
Paul Mulrennan |
3 |
12 |
15 |
87 |
17.2 |
|
Stevie Donohoe |
3 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
37.5 |
|
Dane O'Neill |
2 |
7 |
9 |
20 |
45.0 |
|
Kevin Stott |
2 |
7 |
9 |
34 |
26.5 |
|
Rowan Scott |
2 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
23.1 |
|
Rob Hornby |
1 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
42.9 |
|
Jack Mitchell |
1 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
12.5 |
|
Dougie Costello |
1 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
22.2 |
|
Graham Lee |
1 |
10 |
11 |
74 |
14.9 |
|
Shane Gray |
0 |
3 |
3 |
23 |
13.0 |
|
Tom Marquand |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
0.0 |
|
George Bass |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
Cieren Fallon |
0 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
42.9 |
|
William Carver |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0.0 |
|
Angus Villiers |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
Duran Fentiman |
0 |
3 |
3 |
34 |
8.8 |
I’ve ordered this by wins – and highlighted in red the TP% figures of significance….
Again, this is information that doesn’t necessarily lead directly to a bet. But it does provide context and helps to round your view. Sometimes it leads you somewhere. Other times, it doesn’t....
Who has experience? Who doesn’t? Which rider has a record that suggests he might be an advantage to a handicapper in the right circumstances? These are good questions to ask….
Frankie Dettori has done it consistently over a long period. Dane O’Neill has been around a long time too. He’s had fewer qualifying rides here than Dettori – but he’s done well on those he’s had….
James Doyle has the top figures for me. Stevie Donohoe is the unexpected name highlighted. His record is promising. He’s ridden some nice races at the track on horses provided by Charlie Fellowes….
Those bits and pieces might be of some interest or use to you if you’re still working on your selection for tomorrow’s John Smith’s Cup….
For those of you who choose to follow me in, I’m backing David O’Meara’s TINANDALI at the general 20s….
The 4yo has done nothing wrong since joining O’Meara from Dermot Weld’s yard in January. £45k changed hands for him. He was thought of by Weld and connections as a pattern class horse….
He ran well at Ayr first-time up for the yard on handicap debut. And he followed that up in the Investec at Epsom with another solid effort and a good attitude….
He’s rated 102, but he shapes like he will progress further still – and he’s joined a yard with a track record of improving new recruits and winning good races with them….
He wouldn’t be out of place winning this off 102 – and the 20s is a decent price about him….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the John Smith’s Cup (2.30 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Sunday’s Super Sprint Stakes at Newbury. Stay tuned....
All the best.
Nick Pullen
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