Friday, 24th July 2020
Sunday looks a bit better than Saturday for big handicap punters this weekend. The traditional day of rest delivers big handicap races at York and at Ascot….
Saturday delivers just a single contest of betting interest – the International Stakes up the straight 7f….
The other race I’d hoped to play in at York has broken down into an 8-runner affair. No good to man or beast from a betting perspective….
But we work with what we’ve got. I’ll be in touch tomorrow with news of what I’m backing – and why – on Sunday. Today, we focus on the International….
The first thing I want to look at is the form table….
Greetings from South Derbyshire….
The form table will rarely point you directly at either a bet or a winner. And I don’t expect it too. I am seeking information rather than divine intervention….
I consult the 7-day form table for a snapshot of which yards are going well heading into the weekend and which might find themselves stuck in the doldrums – without a breath of wind at their backs….
Of course – from a betting perspective – we might look to get with the former (those handlers with horses that are clearly firing) and to give the latter (firing nothing but duds) the swerve….
The table below highlights the 7-day form of each yard with runners in tomorrow’s International at Ascot – ordered by number of winners and with the significant TP% figures highlighted in red….
I am also interested in how each yard is going in the C2 handicaps this term….
Again, knowing what’s what will rarely point you directly at a bet – or fully justify one….
But it does give you a clear idea of which yards have the quality handicappers required to produce performances consistently at this level. And that’s worth knowing….
The table below tells the story….
Mark Johnston is the man with the volume in terms of winners and places bagged. But he doesn’t spare the lead. His yard is the sawn-off shotgun compared to the sharp-shooting prowess at C2 level of someone like an Eve Johnson Houghton or an Owen Burrows….
For my money though, Roger Varian is the main man. A total place strike rate of 65% from 20 qualifying runners speaks of a high-quality, in-form and consistent handler with the horses required to do the job week in and week out….
You can see for yourself that one or two of these yards tend to lack C2 handicap ammunition. It doesn’t mean they can’t win tomorrow’s race. Just that it would be a flash in the pan outcome rather than the start of a fire that can’t be put out….
Something else I want to know is how the jockeys with rides in tomorrow’s race perform up the Ascot straight in fields of 16+ runners….
The table below answers the question. My figures are based on races at C4 level or better (handicap or non-handicap) over the last 7-years….
You’d expect the likes of Ryan Moore and Frankie Dettori to appear at the top-end of any race-performance related table. And the fact they do here confirms that we’re looking at meaningful figures….
Adam Kirby is underrated at Ascot. And Harry Bentley is the surprise card in the pack….
It’s been an advantage to be drawn high at Ascot on the straight for a while now. Kirby and Moore have both registered two-thirds of their wins on the straight when drawn high. They exit the top two stalls tomorrow afternoon. Dettori and Bentley are drawn low….
There is no end of data and information to look at. And I can’t all include it all here. You wouldn’t want me to. Whatever you look at though, the time comes when you need to make a decision….
CHIEF OF CHIEFS is backable in my book at the general 12s – but if you’re really quick you can snap up the 16s with bet365 & Sky Bet – and that’s bonus….
The horse showed a new side to his game when winning the Silver Wokingham at the Royal meeting last month on his first go over the 6f trip….
Most of his career he’s been raced at a mile or beyond. That he seems better over shorter is something of a revelation to connections and at 7yo he is suddenly a different horse….
It didn’t work out at Newcastle last time in a G3 – again over the 6f trip. Up in grade on a new surface and under a first-time ride from Ben Curtis it didn’t work out….
But tomorrow is a different day. He’s up to 7f – but I don’t see that as an issue. He’s clearly got the stamina for the in-between trip and who is to say he will not prove better again up at 7f but not having to go a mile or beyond….
He’s up to a career high mark of 100. But he won with a fair bit in hand at Ascot. Having started slow and having met trouble mid-race, he still manged to put daylight between himself and the rest. I think he can go on again off 100 at 7f. He certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of the 6f at the Royal meeting….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the International Stakes (2.25 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the big handicaps at Ascot and York. Stay tuned....
All the best.
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