Friday, 21st August 2020
Saturday is the busiest day of the Ebor meeting at York for handicap punters….
The feature race is – of course – the Ebor at 3.40. We did our spadework here and here….
The Melrose at 2.25 is run over the same trip as the Ebor. The difference is that the earlier race is contested solely by the 3yos….
Finally, at 4.40 the Sky Bet Handicap sees a field of 17 horses go at it over the turning 10f trip….
Plenty to be getting on with….
Heading into a big weekend is a good time to review which yards have been bagging more than their fair share of winners and placers over the last 7-days….
The table below – by volume of winners and with significant total place strike rates highlighted in red – offers a quick and dirty snapshot of whose hot right now….
Many of the horses contesting the Melrose have never raced over the 1m6f trip before. And some will be more suited to the challenge than others….
If you’re looking for pointers as to which horses will or won’t thrive at the trip, a looksee at the record of sires with runners in the race might be informative….
The table below shows the simple win to run record of relevant sires from 2010 in C1 and C2 races over trips of 14f to 15f.
The information won’t lead directly to a bet. But it is useful context. You can see clearly which sires produce most progeny that contest races at the trip in question – and which are most successful in terms of volume of winners….
It’s information that might be useful in the Ebor too. The horses running in the Ebor have more experience than the Melrose horses, but not all of them have much experience at the trip and some will be racing over the trip for the first time – Pondus, El Misk, Pablo Escobar and Deja, for example….
Three races, three markets and 54 horses to run the rule over….
If you’ve found the time to do the work, you’ll have your own ideas on what to back – and why. Good for you….
If you fancy sharing, let me know what you’ve put your money down on and why. I’m always interested to hear the other man’s point of view. Contact me direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
If you’re intention is to follow me in, let’s get on with it….
In the Ebor I reckon GHOSTWATCH is a big price at 20s for a horse that won the Melrose in 2018….
He missed last season but showed at Newmarket in July that the fire still burns and that on his day he is capable of winning races off a mark of 106….
By Dubawi, Ghostwatch is a strong stayer and this race would certainly have been the target for him last term. Another year on he will be another year stronger….
Last time in France, the race wouldn’t have been run to suit. Tomorrow’s strong pace will suit much better and he is one that definitely gets home….
All the money in the Melrose is for the in-form William-Haggas trained Favourite Moon….
Fair enough, but the price is way too short for me and I’m more interested in another Haggas runner – A STAR ABOVE – at a much more acceptable 12s….
He’s by Sea The Stars, he’s been going through the line very nicely over 12f this term to date and I can see this step-up in trip producing more improvement still under Tom Marquand….
He’s up 12lb already this term with two wins and a narrow defeat to show for his three races. But he’s still officially rated just 88 and he is surely going to prove better than that. I reckon this staying trip can draw out that improvement….
In the Sky Bet Handicap, I’m going to back Roger Varian’s FIFTH POSITION at the 8s….
That’s short for me, but he’s twice the price of Sinjaari – the 2nd fav – who beat him over course and distance in a big field handicap back in July in receipt of 9lbs….
Tomorrow that one gets just a pound from the Varian horse and I reckon the latter is overpriced to turn that York form around….
Forget his run last time at Goodwood. Nothing went right that day. The first-time blinkers lit him up, he was out the back when it paid to race prominently, he hit a bit of trouble in running and he got caught out wide….
Draw a line through it. He can bounce back tomorrow for an in-form yard….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Melrose (2.25 @ York).
In the Ebor (3.40 @ York).
In the Sky Bet Handicap (4.40 @ York).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back in your inbox next week. Stay tuned....
All the best.
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