Friday, 28th August 2020
Earlier in the week, tomorrow’s C2 Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap at Goodwood (2.25) looked like it might turn into a decent big-field betting heat….
But this morning it looks anything but….
Just 10 runners go to post – well short of the field size we get in this race more years than not….
And while the best book of prices this morning weighs in at a reasonable enough (in the greater scheme of things at least) 117% – all 10 runners are priced-up between 9/2 and 11s….
In other words, this race is viewed as extremely competitive, the layers are cautious, and the market has no strong opinion one way or the other….
It’s one of those races where you stand back and ask yourself whether you really need to get involved and pull the trigger….
Whether it might be more advantageous or rewarding to hold fire and wait for a better target to come along….
I can tell you now that under slightly different circumstances I might well have decided against betting in the race. It’s the wrong shape – both as a race and as a market….
But sometimes you do a bit of digging about and you find something that trumps your first impression. That’s the case today. I’m betting despite the race and the market not conforming to the kind of shape I generally prefer….
More shortly. First, a bit of intelligence for those of you intending to form your own opinion and to dig out your own bet….
You might find it useful to know how the trainers with a runner in tomorrow’s race tend to perform in the C2 handicaps down at Goodwood….
The table below tells the story as it has unfolded across the last 10-years – ordered by number of wins and with significant total place strike rates highlighted in red….
Or you might find it instructive to know which jockeys have done best in double-figure fields at the track over trips between 7f and 8f….
The table shows the record of jockeys with a ride in tomorrow’s race in all such races across the last decade – once again ordered by number of wins and with significant total place strike rates highlighted in red….
Or you might just want to be aware of which yards have been in the best form with their runners over the last week. The table below contains the details – ordered by wins….
No beating about the bush for me this morning – I’m backing MONOSKI at the general 10s….
The general record of Mark Johnston at the track in these C2 handicaps and his specific record in such races with Joe Fanning in the saddle has a lot to do with this bet….
If that makes no sense to you, it’s probably because you missed yesterday’s column. You can catch up on the detail here….
But there’s a bit more to the bet than just dominance on the statistical record. The 3yo is down to a mark of 87 now having risen as high as 100 following his exploits in Group company last year as a juvenile….
Back then he was lining up against such talents as Pinatubo, Arizona, Wichita, and Armory. He wasn’t as good as them. And they have clearly gone on to better thing. In comparison, Monoski has lost his way….
Perhaps he was never quite as good as Mark Johnston thought or hoped he was. Or perhaps something was ailing him. We can’t know. We can only speculate….
But he turns up here on the back of being gelded. And perhaps that procedure will help him concentrate on the job at hand….
On a mark of 87 he is weighted to go very well if the procedure inspires a return to anything like form that his one-time rating of 100 rating promised. And at a double figure price – at a track where the yard excels and with Joe Fanning in the plate – he’s worth chancing….
At least that’s how I see it….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap (2.25 @ Goodwood).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight, analysis, and intelligence.
Stay tuned. Enjoy the Bank Holiday weekend….
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