Friday, 4th September 2020
When it comes to actual betting, this column is focused primarily on big-field C2 handicap contests….
We get two of those tomorrow afternoon….
There’s the Porsche Handicap (4.15) up the 7f straight at Ascot – where 17 horses are scheduled to go to post….
Up at Haydock, there’s the Old Borough Cup (2.50) in which 17 horses will slug it out over the 14f trip….
It’s not a bad old weekend for big-field handicap fans like us….
For some punters, the big-field handicaps that this column relentlessly targets represent the most difficult betting puzzles on the British racing programme….
And I would not disagree….
And that’s exactly why I target these races – the races many other punters wouldn’t touch with a long stick….
Because they are difficult. Because they are hard to call….
I take the view that everybody finds these big-field handicap races difficult. I know I do. I suspect you do too. The bookies do. So do the punters we are betting against in the markets….
In such a difficult and complex environment – where 16 to 24 horses of similar capabilities go at it up a strip of turf – errors of judgment and pricing are easily made….
Some horses are over-estimated. Others are underestimated….
I set out to take-on the former and to get onside with the latter. My thinking is that over time – if I make those distinctions accurately enough – the winners and the profits will take care of themselves….
Easy said. Harder done. But that’s the game. That’s the assignment I have set for myself….
I never back a short price. I am almost always looking down the market for my contrarian selections. If I could make the job any more difficult for myself, I don’t know how. Perhaps I should work wearing a blindfold….
But where would be the fun in having it any other way? There are no races more interesting than the big-field handicaps – and no puzzle more rewarding on those occasions where the right answer is found….
So, I crack on with undimmed enthusiasm – against the odds, against the market, against all common sense and against the Gods….
The first thing I want to know – before I get into the nitty-gritty of the races themselves – is how the yards with runners in the two races I’m targeting tomorrow have been going over the last 7-days….
I work on the principal that recent form is the most informative form. What’s happened over the last week is more important than what happened a month ago….
I’m looking for a ‘right now’ snapshot of who is firing in winners. After all, there’s no better indication of ‘right now’ form than winning form….
The information will occasionally lead me directly to a bet. But most of the time it just provides some context – which yards are hot, which are tepid, and which might be running a little cold….
You might find the data useful too. The table below contains the detail – and is ordered by volume of winners….
The ground is going to be a factor at Haydock tomorrow. It’s already described as soft (heavy in places) and with more rain forecast between now and the off in the Old Borough Cup (2.50) horses that don’t handle a proper heavy surface are going to be in trouble….
Andrew Balding’s Diocletian is interesting at 14s with Oisin Murphy up. The trainer is in great form, he does well in the good handicaps at Haydock and he and Murphy have combined well at the track. But I’m not sure he’s going to appreciate it quite as heavy as it is….
Preference at the prices is BRANDON CASTLE at 16s with lady of the moment – Hollie Doyle – booked to ride….
An 8yo dual purpose horse won’t be everybody’s idea of a bet for this race, but he’s in-form having won his last two over hurdles at Market Rasen in ready fashion. He’s somewhere near his best right now….
He turns out here on a flat mark of just 88 – that’s 7 pounds shy of the mark he beat the decent Time For Study off a couple of years back at Musselburgh in a decent handicap….
That’s ageing form now. But the run came on heavy ground and this horse will handle tomorrow’s surface better than most in the field. He likes to front run, he gets the trip no problem and, as I say, he’s in rude health right now. He could really put it up tomorrow and is a big price under bottom weight….
He’s up 15lbs over hurdles in the last few weeks. His flat mark has remained static. It’s an interesting call to go to Haydock. This fit and firing horse could well go better than his price suggests….
In the Porsche at Ascot (4.15) Kevin Ryan’s QUEEN’S SARGENT is an interesting option at 16s under 3lb claimer Megan Nicholls….
The 5yo has improved this term as a result of close-season wind surgery. He’s won a couple and is moving up the ranks again….
Last time at Chester he was in a C2 for the first time in a while and was probably unlucky not to be drawn closer to the winner. As it was, he was right on the outside of 12 runners – not the place to be at Chester….
The winner was on the front end from stall 1 from the word go whilst Kevin Ryan’s horse started slowly and had to be dropped in at the rear. He made a tonne of ground up in the second half of the race, but the winner had flown….
He can go better and 16s is a big price about him because he doesn’t look done to me yet despite going up 10lb since June and running off a career-high mark. There is more to come….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Old Borough Cup (2.50 @ Haydock).
In the Porsche Handicap (4.15 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for now....
I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight, analysis, and intelligence.
Stay tuned....
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