Monday, 7th September 2020
There is a decent week ahead – with the St Leger meeting starting at Doncaster on Wednesday….
And there’s plenty of decent racing next week too – up at Ayr. The Western meeting boasts a few races that represent perfect betting targets for me and the way I play the game….
But I’m getting ahead of myself. One thing at a time. This week comes before next and I hope to be playing in handicaps across all four days on the Town Moor at Doncaster….
Potential upcoming betting targets….
Over the next few days, I’ll bring you details of my bets mixed-in with analytical coverage of the C2 handicap scene – past, present, and future.
So, buckle-up and strap in. We’re right at the beginning of an interesting – and enjoyable – fortnight….
The Portland at Doncaster is the big betting heat at the Doncaster meeting – and there’s sure to be a big field going to post on Saturday afternoon….
Contested over 5f and 143 yards up the Town Moor straight, the race is a real target for a unique and peculiar group of specialists....
I’m talking about the horses that need a slightly stiffer test than the bare 5f presents but which are not quite at their very best when asked to go 6f....
It’s a real in-between trip. You can think of it as a stiff 5f or an easy 6f....
Whatever. Top-class handicappers don’t get to race for good money over this kind of trip very frequently – so the Portland is a proper target race for trainers with a horse in their ranks who requires this very precise test....
I’ll be looking for the value and making selections on Friday afternoon. But in advance of races like this, it is always useful to know what kind of horse generally tends to come out on top....
And the stats provide a route to understanding….
All that said it bears repeating that stats don’t run in races....
They certainly don’t win them. Nor are they 100% fool-proof. Even the very strongest stats, trends and result patterns are there to be over-turned....
Stats are a guide. No more and no less. They provide context. But they are not an entire selection tool that you can trust to entirely....
It might be the case that younger horses have the best record in a specific race. But you can never take the individual out of the general….
Whether or not that young-horse trend is upheld this time round will very much depend on the individual qualities of the specific younger horses that are set to run this time round….
A poor or out-of-form younger horse isn’t necessarily going to run well, win or place simply because it happens to be young....
My basic point is this: the specific facts must always take precedence over the general….
The trick with stats is to let them guide you to areas and horses of interest – but not to take them too literally....
Let the stats highlight a group of horses, then subject that specific group to full scrutiny....
It’s like due diligence in the financial markets. You know that stocks have always made money for investors over time. But you don’t just invest in any stock and expect the general trend to hold true whatever....
Instead you do the background digging. You look at a few stocks, study the various businesses, figure out their prospects over the long term and then decide....
The general trend acts as a guide to an area of interest, but it is the nitty-gritty of the individual stock that ultimately drives your investment decision….
It’s the same thing with horses. The general trend highlights areas potentially worth of additional investigation. But it is that investigatory process into the individual horse that will (or should) determine whether you bet it….
The stats are an aide to understanding and help to find a route into a specific race. But they are a starting point. Not the end destination....
That’s where we are with the stats at ATC....
I spent a few hours yesterday studying the last 18 renewals of the Portland – poking about in the dataset and looking for pointers and potential routes into the race....
A few things stood out and highlight areas of interest within the race….
Those are the strongest pointers I can extract from the previous 18 renewals of the Portland.
On their own they won’t pinpoint the winner. But they will highlight horses worthy of closer inspection and thought….
Tim Easterby had a good week last week in the C2 handicaps – with 2 winners and 2 placers from his 9 qualifying runners….
Perhaps this morning Mr. Easterby will be hoping that his better-quality handicappers are running into a purple patch of form ahead of this week’s Doncaster fixture….
If they are, then perhaps the yard can improve on a record of just 2 winners from its last 70 runners in C2 handicaps on Town Moor. They haven’t had a qualifying winner at the track since 2014 and the current losing sequence runs to 48….
Richard Fahey is another Yorkshireman who will be hoping for a change of luck at Doncaster this week….
He’s done okay at the track in the past with his best handicappers. His problem is that he can’t seem to get a C2 handicap winner anywhere right now….
He’s bagged a single such winner from 56 runners this term. And it is a heavily below-par record that runs deeper than just this season….
Go back to the start of 2018 and Fahey’s C2 handicap record since then reads 4 winners from 244 qualifying runners – a strike rate of just 1.6%....
He simply hasn’t got the top-quality handicap ammunition in the yard at the moment. And, if I am wrong, and he has, then we haven’t seen it yet. His C2 handicap squad is hard to support right now….
More tomorrow….
Until then. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
