Saturday, 3rd October 2020
Ascot is off – thanks to the heavy rain. Nothing we can do about that….
And – if the Arc does go ahead tomorrow – it could be decimated thanks to a contaminated batch of feed….
One of Aiden O’Brien’s horses – not an Arc runner – has tested positive for Zilpaterol. His four remaining Arc runners have been tested to see if they test positive too….
We won’t know the results of those tests until this evening apparently. But if the horses have been contaminated by the dodgy batch of Gain feed, the likelihood is they won’t be running tomorrow….
The field had already been diminished by the withdrawal of Love – the other protagonist who’d been expected to be the one putting it up to Enable….
The ground was very soft all week and with unrelenting rain (the going description is now heavy) O’Brien pulled the plug on her plans ahead of the weekend….
This is not the Arc that we had hoped for….
John Gosden’s other runner, Stradivarius – stepping back in trip and not sure to fully appreciate the ground – is now the one expected to be of most danger to Enable’s attempt to win a third Arc….
But the value about him went earlier in the week. He was 14s on Monday. This morning he’s 13/2. That’s short enough….
With the rain falling all week, everybody and his dog has been looking for proven heavy ground performers to latch onto.
There aren’t too many and the obvious ones to make a case for have been backed all week….
But I still reckon there’s some value to be had….
My bet is as much about a man as it is about a horse….
Andre Fabre has won eight renewals of the Arc throughout his illustrious career – and from that record you can safely deduce that he knows an Arc horse when he comes across one….
His PERSIAN KING can be backed at a healthy 18s & 16s this morning – and that’s the horse for me….
The bet represents a swing of the bat at a wide ball – because the horse has done most of his racing at a mile and has raced only once at 10f. But never at 12f. This will be his first such go. There’s also a widespread belief that he won’t handle heavy ground….
By the has won a G1 on heavy – unlike some of those shorter than him in the betting – and at the price I’m prepared to wager that Fabre isn’t a million miles wrong in pointing the horse at Europe’s most prestigious 12f prize….
Fabre has been talking about the Arc as a back-of-the-mind target for this horse all summer despite campaigning him at top-level mile events….
The thinking is clear. His dam’s sire is Dylan Thomas. There is stamina – Arc level stamina – on that side of his pedigree. He might very well improve for the trip. And a slow run Arc on heavy ground might just help….
I don’t claim to be a student of pedigrees. All that blue blood in the breeding sheds analysis is beyond me. But Fabre knows a thing or two about that stuff and the kind of horse it takes to win an Arc….
I’m going to bet his judgment against that of the wider market. The price encourages me to do so. I reckon this horse has a strong chance of being a bigger player than the market believes….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Arc De Triomphe (3.05 @ Longchamp).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
