Thursday, 8th October 2020
It’s one of those quirky weekends on the racing calendar – when handicap fans get a clutch of big races to target for bets….
On Saturday there’s the Cesarewitch at Newmarket and the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap at York….
Before that – tomorrow afternoon – we’ve got the Old Rowley Cup Handicap at Newmarket and a couple of decent handicaps up at the North Yorkshire track….
The Friday races are where the focus is today. I’m doing my usual – taking a contrarian stance and digging out my idea of the best bets at value prices….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my money is going tomorrow afternoon….
If you were planning to back David O’Meara’s FIRMAMENT then you would probably want to be doing it at York – the track he seems to like best….
And you’d probably want to do it in October – a month he’s got a good career record in….
The 14s & 12s about the 8yo for tomorrow’s 2.05 at York isn’t massive – but it is fair….
Last year he was 2nd in the race off a mark of 97 on soft ground. This time around he goes off 95 – but with the additional assistance of 5lb claimer Angus Villiers in the plate….
In short he’s weighted to go well on similar ground to last year and from a nice draw in stall 6. If he runs his race he is entitled to go close….
For some horses, the 2.40 at York represented an alternative option to the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket….
Favourite Moon – the jolly – was rerouted by William Haggas because the trainer saw this as a less competitive option. Hugo Palmer’s Strawberry Rock is another fancied horse who held an entry in the Newmarket race….
Ralph Beckett’s Prince Alex heads into this race on a 5-timer – and he looked better than ever last time when winning at Haydock on his first go at 14f. The market is coming for him this morning. He’s been backed all the way down to 9/2….
The value in the race for me is the horse that he beat 1.5 lengths into 3rd at Haydock and who reopposes tomorrow on 3lb better terms – David O’Meara’s KING’S CHARISMA who can be backed at 16s….
Regular readers know I am not a pounds and lengths guy. I make the comparison simply to underline the point that the disparity in prices isn’t really justified by the distance between the two horses at the Lancashire track – particularly as the O’Meara horse met a bit of interference in running and should have finished even closer….
Both horses get the trip well. Both are open to lots more improvement – and I’d rather be on the one that’s almost three times bigger in the market. The O’Meara horse can outrun those odds….
William Haggas knows a thing or two and you can take his word for it when he said earlier this week that Friday’s Old Rowley Cup is a really competitive race….
When races are competitive the outcome often boils down to which horse has most advantages going for it on the day….
I know the season has been curtailed because of the pandemic, but yards have still been on the go since early spring – and some of them are showing signs of running out of steam as the season runs into its latter stages….
One yard that is still going strong is John Gosden’s and he sends out NASRAAWY for a Hamdan Al Maktoum team that’s had a stellar season – winning plenty of big races in our C2 handicap niche….
When this horse was sent out at Salisbury early in September, it was immediately clear that being gelded had served to improve him….
He won that day on good to soft. Afterwards, his jockey said that he thought the horse probably hadn’t liked the ground….
Did that mean he wants it quicker or slower? I’m not sure. But he’s had four goes on quicker and didn’t manage to win any of them. At 16s, I’m happy to swing the bat and give him a chance to prove himself on the softer surface….
The owner’s number one jockey – Jim Crowley – accompanies the horse for the first time this term. That’s a plus. And Gosden has placed with two of his last three runners in the race – offering some encouragement that he’s in the habit of training (and saving) live ones for it….
Like Mr. Haggas says, the race is competitive – packed with unexposed and progressive types. In that kind of environment, I don’t see any point backing a shortie. My selection can outrun the market’s assessment….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betsafe Double Winnings Handicap (2.05 @ York).
In the Betsafe Handicap (2.40 @ York).
In the Old Rowley Cup (4.10 @ Newmarket).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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