Friday, 9th October 2020
It’s good racing for handicap fans this weekend….
We’ve got good racing up at York and at Newmarket this afternoon. I’m targeting three big races. Yesterday, I highlighted where my money is going this afternoon. If you missed that, catch up here….
Today, the focus is on the races I’m targeting at Newmarket and York tomorrow afternoon – the 34-runner Cesarewitch and the 22-runner Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap up the straight 6f strip on the Knavesmire….
I’m doing my usual – taking a contrarian stance and digging out my idea of the best bets at value prices….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my money is going tomorrow afternoon….
Stats are a good starting point when you come to study a race and look for a bet. They offer clues, pointers and angles that can help you make sense of a race….
They offer a starting point – a chopping block on which you can slice and dice the field into the potential contenders that are worth looking at more closely and horses you might be best served by swerving….
Some punters swear by the stats. They follow what the stats suggest to the letter – as though the stats represent some kind of blueprint formula that leads directly to winners….
But that’s not the case. And when circumstances dictate – and when I can make the case for doing so – I’m more than happy to ignore the statistical evidence provided by what happened in the past and to bet my own viewpoint instead….
That’s the case with this season’s Cesarewitch at Newmarket (3.35). On Monday, I highlighted the fact that only one winner in the last 18 renewals of the raced had come out of a stall bigger than 25….
It’s a strong stat – but I’m ignoring it. Because I can make the case for doing so. I’m going to back Dermot Weld’s DALTON HIGHWAY at this morning’s 20s and 16s….
He starts in stall 27 tomorrow. But this is a horse that thrives in big-field races and he likes to come late off a strong pace. Tomorrow’s race is ideal, and the wide stall won’t be a bother to him. Jockey Tom Marquand will be able to slot him in mid- to rear of the field and make his move late on….
The horse is a certain stayer at this extreme trip. I think that’s why he goes for the British version of the race on Saturday rather than Irish version (run over 2 furlongs shorter) on Sunday – a race he was 2nd in last term – along with the fact he carries 6lb less in the British version….
Tom Marquand – who really has emerged as a top force this term – is an eye-catching booking. You might have expected him to be on Just Hubert. He wouldn’t have been short of offers. The decision to ride this one represents a positive in my book….
The horse produced two duck eggs in his last two performances. I’m not concerned about those. There was no pace for him in the Galway race where it paid to be prominent while he raced at the rear. It was a similar story at Killarney in August….
Tomorrow’s race will be much more up his street. Reapplication of the visor will help him concentrate. I fancy him to run a big race at a decent-enough price….
Tim Easterby has had a lot of runners over the last fortnight and not so many winners. But one thing I have learnt over the years is that he can come from nowhere and bounce back to form in big York handicaps….
And I reckon his STAXTON has a cracking chance tomorrow in the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (3.10) at the general 16s….
This horse did very well in this race in 2018 as a 3yo from an unfavoured high draw. Last year he was drawn on the high side again. This time around he’s drawn in stall 5 with plenty of pace around him….
He probably disappointed connections and backer last time at Ayr. That’s how it is with these handicap sprinters. They can throw in a wrong ‘un. But they can bounce back too….
Prior to Ayr he’d won twice on the bounce. He’s up to 92 but that’s still a winning mark for the horse – and by some margin. He can outrun his price tomorrow….
I’m going two-handed in this one with William Haggas’s APLOMB as my second pick at 16s & 14s….
Like the Easterby horse this one was drawn high last year and had no chance as it turned out on the day. He too is drawn low this time and he will have the assistance of Paul Hanagan in the saddle….
It’s an interesting booking by the Haggas team. Hanagan has form in this race – winning it twice and placing three times from his last eleven mounts. On the right horse, Hanagan knows the way home….
He’s in decent form. He won last time out at Ripon on ground with cut. He’s up to 93 but I don’t think that weights him out of things. He can force the handicapper’s hand again. He’s got plenty going for him tomorrow at a nice price….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Cesarewitch (3.35 @ Newmarket).
In the Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (York @ 3.10).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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