Thursday, 22nd October 2020
Reader DT is keen as mustard. ‘Will you be having a crack at anything on Friday at Cheltenham, Nick?’
It’s early doors as far as the jumps season is concerned. There’s next to no form in the book. We don’t know for sure how forward or how far back some yards are in their preparations….
But having a crack is the name of the game. And who wants to be watching the racing tomorrow – the first big televised jumps meeting of the winter – with not a penny down on a single race? Not this citizen….
I’m doing my usual – taking a contrarian stance and digging out my idea of the best bets at value prices in the Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase at 3.35....
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Of course, we did some prep work for the Showcase meeting earlier this week. If you missed that, catch up here and here….
I’ll tell you where my Friday money is going shortly….
First, a quick spin through the top end of the 7-day form table – where at least a hat-trick of winners across the week are required for inclusion….
In the absence of established form lines, this data can point us at yards already going well – yards you might reasonably expect to hold their form going into the weekend….
The table below highlights the details….
Paul Nicholls (7), Dan Skelton (6) and Kim Bailey (5) are the 1-2-3 on win volume….
On win strike rate Bailey (38.5%), Skelton (37.5%) and Evan Williams (37.5%) make the podium….
On total place strike rate Kim Bailey (69.2%) with Nicky Henderson (61.5%) directly behind him and then Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton, and Harry Fry each placing with 50% of runners across the last 7-days….
The instant conclusion you can draw is that Kim Bailey and Dan Skelton are form men – whichever way you want to look at it….
It wouldn’t be a handicap if you were unable to make a good case for multiple runners….
Dolos is a class animal. But he’s rated 161 now and he won’t find it easy to give a tonne of weight all round on his first go – even with the benefit of close season wind surgery….
Scardura has had a good start to the season – but he’s not the most experienced to be stepping up in class….
Dr Richard Newland’s Katpori is interesting at 12s but my preference is for HATCHER at 9s from the in-form Dan Skelton yard….
He won in good style at Southwell when last seen in July – maintaining what is a cracking overall win strike rate across all divisions – and he can improve again off his current mark of 145….
He’s a proper good ground horse but Dan Skelton hasn’t tried to make hay during the summer as you might expect. Instead, he’s kept the horse back for a shot at this decent early season pot – and the ground has come up right….
Thanks to the presence of Dolos at the top of the order, the 7yo has a nice racing weight despite his mark – and that’s handy. He’s gone well off breaks before and – as we’ve seen – Skelton’s horses are performing as well as any on the track right now….
Plenty can go wrong. We know that – because this is racing. But the 9s is no bad price at all. I won’t be going mad, but I will be going in….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase (3.35 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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