Where my money is going in Saturday's big handicap....

Friday, 23rd October 2020

Where my money is going in Saturday’s big handicap….

The jumps season gets underway today – at least as far as this column is concerned….

I’m on one in the afternoon’s Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase at 3.35. If you missed my take on that race, catch up here….

Thirteen go to post for that one. Just eleven race in the feature handicap tomorrow afternoon – the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase at 3.50 over the 3m1f trip….

I’m doing my usual – taking a contrarian stance and digging out my idea of the best bets at value prices….

I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….

Here’s where my money is going tomorrow afternoon….

• Where my money is going....

I make no apologies for keeping things simple and straightforward at this early stage of the season….

With negligible form in the book and match-sharpness an unknown quantity for many of those making their seasonal debut, there is absolutely nothing wrong with siding with an in-form yard and a horse with form at the track….

I’m backing Dan Skelton’s COBRA DE MAI at the general 17/2….

Unlike most of tomorrow’s opponents, the 8yo has already been seen this term. That said a 41-length drubbing at Fontwell – on paper at least – is not exactly the best prep for this or the most convincing signal that a horse is ready to put in a winning performance….

But let’s have it right. The horses running at Fontwell that day had been entered when the ground was described as ‘good – good to firm in places’….

By the time they went to post for Cobra De Mai’s race they’d seen a 13mm deluge of rain and the ground was on the heavy side of soft. In short it was just too deep for Skelton’s charge. But he did at least get a run – and that should have brought him on to some extent….

And it’s not like he absolutely needs it like a road. Good ground is great for him. But he can handle some cut too. He showed that when running a cracker in 6th in last season’s Ultima at the Festival off 142….

This horse likes the track. He’s run some good races on it – the best two coinciding with a step up to trips at 3m+….

I think he’s very sweetly rated on 140 for tomorrow’s race. He can run a big one for his in-form yard and the price is acceptable in the context of the race….

• Any other business….

The media is obsessed with the Cheltenham Festival….

Anything that happens between now and March will pretty much be defined by how it relates to one Festival race or another….

I get irritated by it. The Festival is five months away and much that happens this side of Christmas will have no bearing whatsoever on Festival races….

But if you’re one of those punters for who the jumps season represents little more than a 20-week build up to Cheltenham, you can get started on your Festival spadework this weekend….

Since 2009, 15 Festival winners have turned out at the Showcase meeting – several of them handicappers. Lac Fontana (County Hurdle in 2011) and The Conditional (Ultima in 2020) are two such examples….

But the stats suggest it’s the Grand Annual winner you should have your eyes peeled for over the next 48-hours….

Five of the last 11 winners of that race had appeared at that season’s Showcase meeting – Oh Crick (2009), Pigeon Island (2010), Oiseau De Nuit (2011), Rock The World (2017) and Le Prezien (2018).

If you spot the winner of the 2021 renewal of the Grand Annual this weekend, be sure to let me know….  

• The final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd