Friday, 13th November 2020
First things first – the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is run at Cheltenham on Sunday….
I’ll be playing in that race – but I won’t settle on my betting picks until tomorrow morning. So, look out for me in your email box just ahead of lunchtime if you want my take on the pick of the prices….
Today the focus is on tomorrow afternoon’s Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.15).
I’m taking my usual contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
Fifteen yards have runners in tomorrow’s race. And – before I do anything else – I want to know what kind of form they are in….
Not because the information leads directly to a bet, but because I get a quick and dirty contextual impression of the yards that are bouncing and those that are misfiring….
I’m interested in the most immediate period too – the last 7-days. I work on the principal that what’s happening right now has a more direct influence on what happens next than what happened two-weeks ago….
Here’s how the last week has treated tomorrow’s yards – ordered by win strike rate….
Sean Curran tops the rankings with a strike rate of 66%. That’s slightly misleading given he’s had only three qualifying runners. But two won, so he can’t be knocked….
Paul Nicholls (36.8%) and Nicky Henderson (30%) are almost always in form and almost always in the winners. This week has been no exception. Nothing to see there….
Nigel Twiston-Davies goes well (4 winners from 17 @ 23.5%). So too Alan King (5 winners from 22 @ 22.7%). Colin Tizzard has been quiet to date. His horses have taken time to come to hand. But there are signs of life this week – with three winners….
Evan Williams is probably the guy most in need of a turnaround in recent fortune. His last 33 runners produced just two winners at 6.1% – and those winners were produced in small fields….
It’s nice and sunny down at Cheltenham today, but rain is forecast early tomorrow morning and throughout the day – so I’d expect softer ground than is the case today….
That will be perfect for Dan Skelton’s SPIRITOFTHEGAMES. He was quite fancied for this race last year but ran an absolute shocker that his trainer had no explanation for afterwards….
From there he went to Newbury where he disappointed again. But his three races subsequent to that – all in good quality handicaps at Cheltenham – saw him bounce back to form with three commendable performances. In two of those, he was probably a little unlucky not to win….
At 14s he’s six points bigger in the betting than he was at the off last year and on a mark of 148 he’s 2lb lower in the official ratings. He goes very well when fresh and I just think he’s a big price and nicely weighted on a track he’s run some good races on….
It’s probably fair to say that he’s not been the easiest to win with over fences, but that’s not because he is ungenuine. His time will come – and it could well come tomorrow….
The 14s is not an each-way price for me. I’m minded instead to go two-against-the-field and I’m chancing Colin Tizzard’s THE RUSSIAN DOYEN at 16s as my second pick….
Like I said earlier, the Tizzard team has been quiet early doors but there are signs of life this week and this 7yo can build on the performance he produced over hurdles at Fontwell back in October….
That looked like a pipe-opener on the road to better things and he finished that race off very well. He should be right on his game tomorrow….
The track will suit. He ran a decent race in the novice handicap at the Festival in March and on a mark of 138 he is clearly a horse with plenty of margin to progress into….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.15 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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