Friday, 20th November 2020
This is one of those quieter weekends from a betting perspective – falling between last week’s November meeting at Cheltenham, next week’s Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and the action over the big Aintree fences the week after that….
Today my focus is on the one race – tomorrow’s G3 Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle at Haydock (2.25) where 17 horses go to post for the 3-mile contest….
I’m taking my usual contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
I’m looking no further than Dan Skelton’s WEST TO THE BRIDGE….
I reckon the 7yo is massively overpriced at the 25s and 20s generally available in this morning’s betting….
If he isn’t fit for tomorrow’s race than he is never going to be. He’s been seen twice this term already – at Uttoxeter over 3-miles and at Carlisle at the start of this month where he won in good style over 2m4f….
Both those performances were an improvement on anything the horse had produced previously, and he appears to have turned a corner this term….
He’s gone up 6lbs in the rankings for the Carlisle win, but he’s still only rated 140. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. He can move on again from that mark and gets a nice weight tomorrow afternoon….
He steps up to the proper money tomorrow for only the second time in his career. Last term at Sandown in the G3 Heroes he set a blistering pace and paid for it. Connections might have learnt something form that….
They’ve certainly been trying to get him more settled in his races (he has gone feely in the past) and his career-best effort last time out has plenty to do with the face connections have made progress in that direction. The first thing Harry Skelton said after the Carlisle win was that the horse had settled nicely. It was clearly at the forefront of his mind….
I wouldn’t be surprised if they gave him a bit more of chance tomorrow and ride him with a bit more restraint than that time at Sandown. He can do it from behind too. His recent Uttoxeter performance was produced off a hold-up ride. That might have been something of a looksee practice run for tomorrow….
He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground. It’s soft at Haydock right now. The ground was heavy at Carlisle. You can back him this morning confident that, whatever the weather throws up at Haydock in the meantime, he’ll handle conditions….
He a fit horse, an in-form horse, an improving horse, and he’s at the right end of the handicap. What’s not to like at this morning’s prices?
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Exchange Stayers' Handicap Hurdle (2.25 @ Haydock).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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