Friday, 27th November 2020
It’s a big weekend at Newbury – with 18 going to post for the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at 3.00 tomorrow and 16 taking part in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase over the extended 2m6f trip at 1.15….
I’m taking my usual contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
I’ll tell you where my contrarian money is going in a moment. First, let’s find out which trainers with runners in the two races I’m targeting head into the weekend in the best form….
21 yards have runners in one race and/or the other tomorrow. Before I go any further I want to know what kind of form they are in….
Not because the information leads directly to a bet, but because I get a quick and dirty contextual impression of the yards that are bouncing and those that are misfiring….
I’m interested in the most immediate period too – the last 7-days. I work on the principal that what’s happening right now has a more direct influence on what happens next than what happened two-weeks ago….
Here’s how the last week has treated tomorrow’s yards – ordered by win volume….
Dan Skelton (6 winners @ 27.3%), Paul Nicholls (6 winners @ 17.6%), Kim Bailey (4 winners @28.6%) and Nicky Henderson (4 winners @ 20%) are top of the pops in terms of win volume….
But there are plenty of yards with plenty of competitive runners (measured by total place strike rates) – Jonjo O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Colin Tizzard would certainly fall into this category….
There are not too many you could highlight as being clearly out of form….
Perhaps Alan King with just a single winner and 3 placers from 19 runners goes into the weekend most on the back foot….
It’s still very tight up at the top in the betting for the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase with half-a-dozen horses trading at 6s to 9s this morning….
It would take a brave man to write any of them off and a schoolboy could make a case for each and all. Plenty of tipsters will be playing it safe and putting one of those six horses up….
Fair enough. But my job is not to play it safe and follow the money. My job is to highlight the horse that could be underestimated and overlooked at the prices. The one that stands out as an each-way play tomorrow is Colin Tizzard’s MISTER MALARKY at the general 16s….
The yard won two of the last five years renewals and Copperhead is widely considered the number one option this time around – though he will need to bounce back from a failure to complete in his prep-run at Wetherby….
In any case, horses don’t know what the pecking order is and the handicap is designed to render it irrelevant anyway. Mister Malarky went well for a long way in last season’s renewal – he was bang on it two fences from home before fading into 6th – and there are reasons to believe he might go just that bit better this year….
He’s followed the same route into the race this year as last – with a spin in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot as a warm-up. Last year he was dog-poor in that race – but it didn’t stop him improving markedly at Newbury off 150 in first-time cheekpieces….
This year he was a lot better at Ascot, he will run off the same mark of 150 tomorrow and he will wear first-time blinkers tomorrow to sharpen him up. Jonjo O’Neill Jr is back in the saddle too – as he has been for all the horse’s major assignments over the last 18-months….
Mister Malarky maybe raced a little wide at points last year. Perhaps he can save more ground this time around. He’s another year older at 7, I reckon he’s going into the race in better form than last year, the ground will suit and he’s a proper stayer….
He hasn’t got masses of ground to make up based on last season’s performance. With just 12 chases to his name, there’s room for improvement yet and I reckon he can run a big race at a nice price….
Earlier on the card at 1.15 in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase, Paul Nicholls saddles BRELAN D’AS and he’s a fair bet at this morning’s general 10s….
J P McManus’s 9yo hasn’t built on the performance he put in last term in what is now the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham where he was 2nd behind Happy Diva. But he hasn’t had too many opportunities to do so….
He probably disappointed the following time in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. And then he was off for almost a year before turning out in the Paddy Power again a fortnight back….
He was considered a lively outsider for that race – not least by his trainer. He hit the third fence hard, and then travelled in midfield for the remainder of his race – without ever threatening to get involved – before pulling up ahead of the second last fence when all hope was gone….
It was a hot contest in which to make a return on the back of almost a whole year. He might well have needed it. And tomorrow’s contest is certainly a much easier assignment than he’s had in a while. If he’s fitter for the Cheltenham run then he really ought to go close….
He’s been dropped to 140 from 143 – and that will help. And we know he handles the Newbury track – he was 2nd in the 2018 renewal of this race off 134 behind stable-mate Kapcorse….
That one’s favourite to come out on top again tomorrow but will need to overcome a 644-day break from the track – and runs off a 10lb higher mark. Back in a handicap below open level and with a run under his belt I reckon Brelan D’As might just be better-equipped tomorrow….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (3.00 @ Newbury).
In the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (1.15 @ Newbury).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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