Friday, 11th December 2020
Tomorrow’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham (1.50) is the target race for big-field handicap fans this weekend….
I’m taking my usual contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My job is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
We’ll get to where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon. First, let’s find out which trainers with a runner in tomorrow’s race head into the weekend in the best form….
16 yards have runners in tomorrow’s race. Before I go any further I want to know what kind of form they are in….
Not because the information leads directly to a bet, but because I get a quick and dirty contextual impression of the yards that are bouncing and those that are misfiring….
I’m interested in the most immediate period too – the last 7-days. I work on the principal that what’s happening right now has a more direct influence on what happens next than what happened two-weeks ago….
Here’s how the last week has treated tomorrow’s yards – ordered by win volume….
Gary Moore’s had the best week with 6 winners from 19 runners @ 31.6%. He saddles Benatar – who must overcome a 693-day layoff….
Dan Skelton is 4 from 12 for the week @ 33.3%. Evan Williams is 4 from 11 at 36.4%. Romain De Senam runs for Skelton whilst Williams is represented by Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Coole Cody – up just 6lbs for that all-the-way-from-the-front win….
Philip Hobbs is 4 from 19 @ 19% and is responsible for second reserve horse Ibis Du Rheu….
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have had a quieter 7-day period than usual. Nicholls is 3 from 24 @ just 12.5%. Henderson is 2 from 18 at 11.1%….
It’s tight up at the top end of the Caspian market with five horses trading at prices between 6s and 8s….
When that’s the shape of the betting, there’s always going to be something further down the list at an interesting price and the one for me is Nicky Henderson’s CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY at a general 25s and 22s – a genuine each-way price….
He’s not had a prep run, but I’m not as concerned about that with him as I might be for others. On his seasonal debut last term, he produced a career-best up at Aintree – and he clearly goes well fresh and first time-up….
He jumped very sweetly that day – earning plaudits from the pundits and from his jockey Nico De Boinville. He was also given a back-handed compliment by the official handicapper who raised him 15lbs for the performance….
He didn’t really follow the Aintree performance up. But he’s had his wind done during the close season, so maybe there was an issue that was holding him back….
The upside of the downside is that the horse is back down to a mark of 139. Given his trainer and his connections – people who don’t muck about at the bottom end of the game – you’d have to believe that’s a workable mark for this young chaser….
Tomorrow is a good opportunity to take a solid step forward under just 10-08 and at a nice price for backers….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (1.50 @ Cheltenham).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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