Friday, 18th December 2020
The Betfair Exchange Trophy – a G3 handicap hurdle over the 2m trip at Ascot – is the feature handicap for betting purposes this weekend….
A field of 17 horses goes to post on ground described this morning as Soft (Heavy in places)….
And it won’t get better. There are occasional showers forecast today and tomorrow over Berkshire….
It’s going to be testing – and I wouldn’t want to be over-burdened with weight in a race where there are going to be plenty of well-handicapped horses lurking down the list….
I’m also taking an interest in the Silver Cup a little earlier on the Ascot card at 3.00….
Ahead of all the big races, I take a contrarian stance – ignoring the most likely winners (the horses trading at the shortest prices) and digging out a selection that is overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. My self-appointed role is to dig out a left-field runner with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
Alan King’s Isolate is an interesting contender right at the bottom of the weights. He hurdles well and could be anything. But this is a hell of a step up in class and opposition….
I could easily make a case for Malaya or for Oakley. They’re up at double figures this morning – but low double figures and I reckon they’re well enough found now….
The one I like at a price is NIGHT EDITION at the general 18s – a genuine each-way price….
The rule of thumb in races of this nature is that you go into it having had a prep-run. And David Pipe’s 4yo old hasn’t had one….
But who cares about the rule of thumb? Rules are there to be broken. Stats and trends are there to be shot at and overturned….
And one of the exceptions to that rule in this specific race came when Pipe saddled Acambo to win it in 2006 off a 224-day layoff. So, the precedent exists….
Night Edition handles a big competitive field – finishing 2nd in the Fred Winter at the Festival in March. That’s a decent piece of form. It’s a solid showing in a big-field situation that plenty of those shorter in the betting for tomorrow’s race have yet to produce….
No doubt he’ll be aimed at the big 2m handicaps going forward this term. Tomorrow is a starting point. And he’ll need to be fit enough first time-up….
But that’s factored into the price and the Pipe yard has been going well over the last six-weeks – as well as it’s been going for a while. It might well be that this race has been a genuine target for this horse for a while….
The horse won’t mind the ground, he acts going right and 10-13 on his back isn’t a stopper in tomorrow’s conditions…..
He’s officially rated 135 and to start him off in a race like this might suggest that this a well-handicapped sort on a mark that Pipe doesn’t want to waste on a lesser race. That’s the perspective I’m betting from – and I like the price….
In the Silver Cup at 3.00 at Ascot I’m going to take a chance on Sophie Leech’s French import ENFANT ROI at 16s….
You can never know how long it’s going to take these types to get used to English conditions and tomorrow is his first race outside France….
But he handles heavy ground – that’s for sure. And tomorrow he’s got the basic set-up to run a big race – assuming he’s good enough….
On a mark of just 132 he gets in on the bottom weight of 10-01 and he’s got 3lb claimer Sean Houlihan on his back to boot. He’s going to feel like he’s running free….
I don’t follow the French racing and I can’t tell you how good or not he is. But he ran up to tomorrow’s official mark in October at Auteuil – running out an 18-length winner on his first run for Leech….
I don’t know what he was up against that day. But Sophie Leech is no mug and if you take the Racing Post rating and the winning distance literally, there should be more to come. He’s potentially well-handicapped tomorrow….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3.35 @ Ascot).
In the Silver Cup (3.00 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
