Saturday, 26th December 2020
Eight of the 18 runners going to post in tomorrow’s Welsh Grand National (2.50) at Chepstow are trading at 12s or shorter….
Plenty of pundits and punters will be making a case for one of those. If you’re backing any of them, I wish you good luck with your selection….
I won’t reiterate what the market is already tell you loud and clear. You know by now how I play the big-field handicap game….
I take a contrarian stance, I oppose the shorties by default, and I seek out an overlooked horse that can get competitive and maybe land a touch at a price….
For me, tomorrow’s race provides an opportunity to back a ‘live’ one at a proper big each-way price – and the unfancied one I fancy to go well is JOE FARRELL at the general 40s....
He’s 11yo now (rising 12), but with just 16 chases under his belt to date he’s not typical of his age and he hasn’t got too many miles on the clock….
He’s got a bit of course form, he’s handled heavy ground, he’s not carrying much weight, he jumps well and he can travel on the pace. So, he ticks some relevant boxes for this specific race….
And he’s a decent horse on a going day. He won a Scottish Grand National not so very long ago. Last term he went well enough in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase and the Midlands Grand National – doing good work late on in proceedings….
What he really needs is a thorough test of stamina (something he has in abundance) and tomorrow’s race certainly fits the bill on that score. It’s not 4-miles. But it will feel like it….
Crucially, he carries a low weight tomorrow afternoon – always an advantage in this race. He’s 2lbs out of the handicap – effectively running off 137. But with 3lb claimer Ben Jones booked to ride, he’s running pretty much off the mark he won off in the Scottish Grand National….
With a horse at this price, you’re always taking something of a chance. He hasn’t lit up the track in his three appearances this term. If he had, he wouldn’t be available at the price he is….
But the stamina test is the key that might well turn the lock – and he’s back to that winning mark. This is a proper staying type who could go plenty better than his big price suggests….
He makes a nice Christmas punt for long-shot dark-horse players….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Welsh Grand National (2.50 @ Chepstow).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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