Monday, 4th January 2021
It’s a New year…. a fresh start…. and everybody – regardless of duty, discipline, or division – wants to hit the ground running in the month of January….
Racing is no exception….
If a yard hasn’t been going too well, now is the time to start turning it around….
Yards that have been going well will seek to keep the winners flowing….
Of course, nobody wants to go backwards….
It’s entirely reasonable to expect the form yards in our specific niche – the C2 & C1 handicaps (especially the big-field events) – to continue where they left off ahead of the Christmas break….
Paul Nicholls, for example….
He sits atop the Trainers’ Championship standings in the first week of 2021 – having produced 100 winners at a strike rate of 26% and having banked more than £1.3 million in prize money….
No other trainer has saddled more winners in our niche during the season to date either….
Nicholls is 10 from 81 with 17 additional placers to boot – equating to a total place strike rate of 33.3% (which is healthy)….
Dan Skelton is another player you might reasonably expect to have a good January in our niche….
He isn’t exactly ‘on the shoulder’ of Nicholls with 26 fewer winners banked and more than half a million in arrears on the prize money front, but he’s the next man in the Championship standings nevertheless….
And he too has enjoyed success in our niche this term – at least in terms of volume….
Six winners and six placers from 62 qualifying runners translate into a win strike rate of 9.7% and a total place strike rate of 19.4%....
It’s not a performance up to the level produced by Nicholls. But then very few yards are blessed with the depth of top-level handicapping talent required to reach that height….
While it may one day be the case that Skelton claws his way up to those rarefied altitudes, his effort is still very much a work in progress. He’s engaged in getting there – he’s on the journey rather than at the terminus….
If you like the idea of backing proven people with a recent track record of doing the business in relevant areas, then Nicholls and Skelton might be high on the list of people you want to support in our niche over the next few weeks….
And I’d totally get where you’re coming from. It’s a strategy that makes a lot of sense. But the figures in the historical record would urge a little caution….
Dan Skelton hasn’t got off to a bad start this month. He saddled Romain De Senam (a Paul Nicholls cast-off) to success in the C2 2m4f handicap chase at Musselburgh on Friday – sent off at 13/2….
But the January record for the Skelton yard in our niche over the previous five seasons doesn’t make for particularly encouraging reading….
There have been winners – 3 of them – but it took Skelton 50 runners to get them….
And it’s a similar story with Paul Nicholls. He too has had three winners in our niche during the month of January over the last five seasons – but in his case it took even more horses – 61 of them – to get those wins up on the board….
Now, of course, none of this means that Nicholls and Skelton are doomed to failure in our niche this month….
Not at all. Racing is never so simplistic or straightforward. And the record is always there – and liable – to be overturned….
What I’m saying is that generally speaking January has not been the best month to catch either Nicholls or Skelton in our niche….
Maybe when the year turns Nicholls and Skelton are already thinking ahead to the spring….
Maybe what we see in the figures is the product of a midseason flat spot ahead of a renewed effort. I don’t know….
But I do know this. It’s a different story elsewhere….
The figures in the historical record tell us January is traditionally a very good time of the year to focus on Venetia Williams and her runners in our specific niche….
Nobody has won more C1 & C2 handicap events in January over the last five years than Williams – she’s saddled 11 winners and 15 placers from 67 runners….
That equates to a win strike rate of 16.1% and a total place strike rate of 38.8%....
And, if you were in any doubt, those are stellar figures in our ultra-competitive niche. Nobody else comes close….
There are no guarantees. Not in this game. But the numbers say that this is the time of year when Venetia Williams and her qualifying runners should be in our thoughts….
Of course, we lost the New Year’s Day fixture at Cheltenham – where there were relevant handicaps on the card. But there’s a whole month ahead of us and Williams is already on the scoreboard….
Ibleo won for her (and for the ATC Watch List) on Saturday at Sandown (albeit at a short price) and you can guarantee that additional top handicappers in her care will be primed for suitable targets over the next few weeks – if the historic record is anything to go by….
It’s something worth knowing about as we get back to it. Something to keep an eye out for….
Chases are where the primary action is at. The last 56 qualifiers produced nine of the winners and 13 of the placers….
That race that Ibleo won at Sandown on Saturday was run at a pretty decent clip – so much so the Williams horse was outpaced early doors before staying on strong in the later stages….
The 8yo had been unlucky to go up 9lb for his previous three defeats and will now go up once more. But he should still be sub-150 after reassessment and can go on again….
He’s never been out of the first two in six goes over fences. He might well turn out to be a Grade horse….
And the way he won on Saturday – comfortably and doing all his best work late on – I reckon he would improve again for a step up to trips around 2m4f….
The horse behind him – Paddy’s Poem – produced a performance well worth noting….
He was the only horse to get remotely competitive. He was never going to beat Ibleo but he had the rest of the field 7-lengths and more in arrears….
This despite having his first run for 393 days and the ground being so soft his yard had very little in the way of expectation ahead of the race….
The 10yo is no spring chicken and certainly not a world-beater. So, I’m not getting carried away – but he was on the decent pace the whole way, he wasn’t wearing his normal headgear, he produced something not far short of a career best and he wouldn’t have been fully fit on the day….
He is entitled to come on for the run and to improve again. And on a sounder surface – maybe in the spring – Nick Gifford can find something for him to win….
Small fields suit. He’s three from seven in a field of 8 or fewer – and zero from nine in fields of 9+. James Davies has never been outside the first three on him in 8 rides….
In a tongue strap – which he didn’t wear on Saturday – he’s three wins from six runs. So, a reapplication of that headgear would be significant….
He might end up winning at a lower level than C2 – he’s certainly got options off his current mark. But no matter, he showed us something in a C2 on Saturday and he goes onto the Watch List….
The Welsh Grand National has been rearranged for Saturday at Chepstow. The key field-splitting stats we looked at before Christmas still hold true. You can revisit those here….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
P.S. One more thing: there are a few potential races of interest to me from a betting perspective at the weekend. Details here….
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