Friday, 15th January 2021
It’s a funny old Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick (3.00) tomorrow afternoon….
Just thirteen go to post. One of those is 12lbs out of the handicap. Another two participants have been off the track for well over a year. None of those is easy to back….
Up at the front-end of the market it would be straightforward to make a case for the improving Notachance….
Alan King has a good record in this race and has been aiming the 7yo at this Warwick target since he won at Bangor in November….
He’ll need to overcome a 7lb rise in the weights but, with just five chases under his belt and being rated just 139, you’d think he’s got more to come yet….
Captain Chaos is another one that’s easy to find. Nobody does better in chases at the track than local trainer Dan Skelton and this will have been the target for the 10yo….
It would be hard to make the case that the horse has been at his best this term. He’s pulled up twice and got well beaten at Newbury….
But he was 2nd in the race last year off 2lb lower and it would be no surprise to see him produce a big run for connections….
Ahead of big handicap races I dig out selections that are potentially overlooked and underestimated at a bigger price – because are the type of horses I like to back myself….
And I am happy to share the details – for anybody who wants to follow me in….
I don’t play it safe because I’m going ‘public’. I don’t worry about strike rates and losing sequences. I don’t shy away from taking risks or leaps of faith that might make me look foolish….
If I did worry about all those things, then I would tell you to back Alan King’s horse tomorrow at this morning’s 9/2. The 7yo’s got plenty going for him and he’s the most likely winner – no doubt about that….
But I can’t back him. It’s against my self-imposed rules. I never back the favourite or the other fancied horses….
Instead, I confine my options to the horses trading at the bigger prices – and I make the case for whatever I reckon can outrun the market’s expectation….
That’s the game at ATC. You don’t need me to tell you that the horses at the top of the market have a big chance. You can see that for yourself. And if you want to back them, don’t let me put you off….
My job is to dig out a left-field runner at a longshot price – with a better chance than the market believes….
I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case. I know some of you like to get me beat with your own selections. Good luck to you all – however you’re playing….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
Ballyoptic is an interesting runner at the head of the weights for Nigel Twiston-Davies….
Not because I necessarily fancy the horse off his mark of 160. But because his presence at the top of the weights means that the other runner from the Twiston-Davies yard – THE HOLLOW GINGE – gets to race off just 10-09….
Now, that may be happenstance. But it might also be a ploy to give the last-named horse the best possible chance. And I’m prepared to bet that’s the case at what looks like a very generous 16s in my book….
I backed the horse last week in the Welsh Grand National. He looked like value then. To me and to his trainer. But he unseated his rider and we’ll never know for sure….
Of course, I’m aware that last week was the third time in four races that The Hollow Ginge has failed to complete – and that I’m taking a chance on him….
But in between times he did finish 4th in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury – over an inadequate trip and on ground that wasn’t as soft as he’d like….
That was a cracking effort in a top race and it advertised the fact that the horse has got something like tomorrow’s race in him if or when it all comes together….
Tomorrow he gets another go at a proper trip on ground that he will relish. He’s not overburdened by weight and the trainer’s son – Sam Twiston-Davies – is back in the saddle for this assignment….
I don’t think the 8yo had too tough a race at Chepstow last week and I’m not worried about the turnaround. I think he’s better – and that he’s got a better chance tomorrow – than the general 16s suggests….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Classic Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Warwick).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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