Thursday, 21st January 2021
Haydock Park passed this morning’s 8.00 inspection. The track is currently fit to race….
Whether or not that will still be the case at the weekend is another matter. There will be another inspection on Saturday morning. The green light hasn’t been given just yet….
But, for the moment, the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase – a G2 limited handicap over the extended 3m1f trip – is still set to go ahead. Good news….
Royale Pagaille has been plenty short in the ante-post betting. On Wednesday night there were still 18 horses in the race and he was available at no bigger than 3s. The market says he’s the one to beat….
Last season, you’d have been reaching somewhat to envisage this scenario. He’d only had two runs for Venetia Williams – races in which he’d faced just four opponents. And he didn’t manage to beat any of them home….
He got beaten 9.5l in a match with Vision Des Flos at Chepstow in a C3 novice chase over 3-miles. He hadn’t raced for 629-days – and he could be forgiven….
But next time he got done 19-lengths in a 3-runner C4 beginners chase over 3-miles at Huntingdon where he lost a shoe and bowed out of proceedings a bit tamely. There, he was probably disappointing….
Of course, you can’t just write a young horse off. He’d had a year out after joining Williams and it takes time to adjust to new surroundings and a new style of racing on unfamiliar tracks….
But he hadn’t exactly lit the French tracks up for Francois Nicolle – his best performance in six goes over fences had been worth just 126 on the RPR scale….
And – with all fairness – the start to his British chasing career had raised more questions than hope (at least for outsiders looking in)….
But Venetia Williams had clearly seen something in the horse. Because she got in touch with Rich Ricci – the owner behind top horses like Faugheen, Vautour, Annie Power and Douvan – and persuaded him to buy Royale Pagaille….
She’d met Ricci a few years previous and he’d told her to get in touch if she found ‘a nice horse’. She did. Royale Pagaille runs in Ricci’s distinctive pink silks – with the big green spots.
The American business magnate is a guy who very much plays to win – at the top end of the game. He’s not in it to make up the numbers. And he’s not known for investing speculatively in middle-of-the-road horses. His involvement was a pointer to the horse’s future potential….
It is only this term that we’ve seen where Williams and Ricci were coming from. The horse has been something of a revelation….
In early December he won a C2 novice chase at Haydock over 3-miles. He only faced 3 opponents – but he did it in ready style. Worth 151 on the RPR scale, the performance was an 18lb improvement on his previous career best. The official handicapper raised him 5lb to a mark of 140….
And he improved again next time out when winning a C2 handicap at Kempton over Christmas – where his RPR weighed in at 160. It’s a performance that encouraged the official handicapper to hoist him up to a mark of 156….
Right now, he’s set to go into the weekend a heavy favourite to win another good handicap off that big mark. And if he wins as easily as his price suggests he might, then we could be looking at a young horse who is not so very far short of Gold Cup standard….
I’ll tell you who does think a bit of Royale Pagaille – Christian Williams….
His Cap Du Nord was beaten 3.25l by Venetia’s horse at Kempton – and if he were to take up his Haydock engagement on Saturday Cap Du Nord would meet Royale Pagaille on 10b better terms….
Cap Du Nord is not unfancied. On Wednesday night, he was third in the betting and trading at a general 11/2….
But one thing is for certain – Christian Williams does not fancy the job. Earlier in the week he had this to say….
‘Cap Du Nord is a possible for the Peter Marsh Chase, but I think the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster is our first preference. We entered just in case Royale Pagaille doesn’t turn up at Haydock, but we are leaning towards Doncaster.’
I think that ‘just in case Royale Pagaille doesn’t turn up….’ speaks volumes. Despite the considerably more advantageous terms he still doesn’t fancy his horse – a progressive chaser in his own right – to turn things around if the two meet again at the weekend….
I don’t think it’s because Christian Williams has zero faith in Cap Du Nord. Far from it. He’s a decent handicapper in the making. His comments are more a reflection of the quality he sees in Royale Pagaille….
Of course, I can’t tell you what goes in the mind of another man. But if I were to make an educated guess, I reckon Christian Williams looks at Royale Pagaille and sees a G1 horse or something very close to it….
The 7yo won so easily at Kempton and – and with so much in hand – he could still be 10lb+ better than 156. That’s what I reckon Christian Williams is thinking….
Of course, this is no secret. The market doesn’t know for sure that Royale Pagaille is a G1 horse in the making – but it strongly suspects….
And if Royale Pagaille does turn up at Haydock on Saturday and racing goes ahead I can guarantee you that there’s going to be about 345,000 tipsters, tipping services and pundits putting him up as a ‘sure thing’….
The money will be down. The crowd will be onside. Such is his promise, he might even get his mugshot on the cover of Saturday morning’s Racing Post….
You can see how these things gather momentum…. how punters get sucked in…. how the snowball gets bigger…. how horses start to look like they can’t be beaten…. how a race starts to look like it might turn into a procession….
But racing is almost always more complex and more nuanced than that. Things are rarely entirely straightforward….
Is Royale Pagaille a sure thing? Perhaps so. But he’s still young. His jumping hasn’t always been fluent. He wasn’t great early doors at Kempton. He’s clearly not the finished article. And can he give 10lb to all but one in the field?
And that mark of 156? Might it be an overreaction from the official handicapper? The horse is rated higher than a lot of the top novices who’ve already shown their mettle in the G1 races. Venetia Williams says she thinks that’s a ‘bizarre’ situation….
Maybe she really believes that. If she does, it raises a doubt. Or maybe she’s using the media to put a seed of doubt in the handicapper’s mind. Who knows? But we’re going to find more out on Saturday – hopefully….
Royale Pagaille has a big chance if he runs on Saturday. No doubt. If I were an out-and-out tipster – seeking winners, massaging strike rates and ever-fretful about losing sequences – I’d probably put him up. He’s the safety-first option. Who cares? If I get it wrong, I’m not alone. There’s safety in numbers….
But that’s not my role. This column doesn’t exist to reinforce what the market is already shouting out loud and clear. And it never takes the easy road….
This column exists to dig out a horse that can do a job at a price. I’m looking for something underestimated – something that can get more competitive than the market believes. Something down the market that stands a chance of turning the sure thing over….
It’s not easy – but then what is? And where would be the fun if it were?
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with more thoughts on the weekend handicap action – and details of where my money will be going. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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