Friday, 22nd January 2021
We can’t know for sure that tomorrow’s meeting at Haydock – where the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (2.40) is set to be run – will go ahead. That will depend on the outcome of a morning inspection….
Just 10 runners will go to post should the Peter Marsh get the green light – including Royale Pagaille (a sure thing in many books)….
Down at Ascot, the Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (1.50) has attracted 12 runners whilst 14 will go to post for the bet365 Handicap Chase (3.00)….
Regular readers know the drill. It doesn’t change. My default setting is to avoid the market fancies and to pin my punting colours to the mast of underestimated horses that can outrun a decent price….
I seek out value rather than obvious winners. I expect to get more wrong than I get right. Much more. I don’t concern myself with strike-rates and I don’t fret about losing sequences….
It is what it is – and my ‘swing-the-bat’ style of race-betting is not for everybody. It requires temperament. It requires patience. And it definitely requires resilience….
But I know some of you like to follow me in – if or when I make a convincing enough case for a horse – which is exactly why I share my thoughts and selections. I know other readers like to get me beat with their own picks….
Good luck to you all – however you’re playing. Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
If Haydock beats the weather, the Peter Marsh (2.40) is going to be a slugfest on bottomless ground thanks to rain of biblical proportions over the last week or so….
And with the front two taking such a big percentage out of the market, there’s always going to be a little each-way value further down the list – and the one for me is Alex Hales’ SMOOTH STEPPER at 20s & 18s generally….
He’s a 12yo now and that will encourage plenty of market participants to give him the swerve. But the fire still burns bright and his trainer spoke very optimistically about his horse ahead of the Becher Chase at Aintree in December….
He was still on the premises deep into that contest – one where every horse got well thrashed by a well-handicapped track specialist – but faded out of it late on….
Tomorrow’s deeper ground will suit him better and if he can replicate the performance he put up at the track last February – when he beat home the likes of Lord Du Mesnil, Yala Enki and The Two Amigos – he’s going to be challenging for a place on the podium….
He’s 4lb higher in the ratings and carries more weight. But he’s in the handicap – more than some can say – and 10-08 isn’t onerous. The yard’s in decent fettle too. He could very well outrun his price….
Gary Moore has his string in good order heading into the weekend and his BOTOX HAS takes my eye as an each-way play at the general 20s in the Holloways Handicap Hurdle (1.50)….
The 5yo put some useful form into the book as a juvenile last term and started the season in the same vein at Cheltenham – looking like a horse capable of delivering a decent pot for connections….
The ground wasn’t soft enough for him at Newbury in November and he disappointed in the Betfair Exchange Trophy at tomorrow’s track in December….
Perhaps the ground was too deep that day. I don’t know. But it was one disappointing run – and any horse can throw one of those in….
It’s interesting that he shows up at the track again tomorrow – over further. Josh Moore is back in the saddle. The ground might suit just that bit better than last time. And at the price I’m prepared to take a little on faith and bet that he can get back on track….
In the bet365 Handicap Chase (3.00) the market has six of the 14 runners up at single figure prices – and has likely done a good job in sorting the wheat from the chaff….
Not many of those at double-figure prices stand out as backable propositions – but the one that does appeal at an each-way quote is JONNIESOFA at the general 16s….
The 11yo will be making the trip all the way down from Northumbria for Rose Dobbin. It’s a very rare foray out of the North and that – in combination with his advanced years and his small yard – will turn plenty of punters off….
But this is no ordinary 11yo. He’s only raced 7 times under rules over fences (he’s had more goes in point-to-points). As 11yo’s go, he’s not got many miles on his clock – and he’s coming off a career-best effort at Carlisle last time (an effort for which he’s gone up just 3lbs)….
It could be connections fancy a day out down south with the big guns and the toffs. It might also be the case that they reckon the horse can nick some prize money – enough to make the jaunt worthwhile….
He’s got a bit to do for sure. But the price factors that in. Going right clearly suits. So will the ground. He’s a dark horse who could run better than his price suggests….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (2.40 @ Haydock).
In the Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (1.50 @ Ascot).
In the bet365 Handicap Chase (3.00 @ Ascot).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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