Friday, 29th January 2021
Like I said yesterday, I’m never going to be a backer of Cap Du Nord at 5/2 for tomorrow’s Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.15)….
Nothing against the horse, he’s an obvious one to latch onto – given that he ran Royale Pagaille to within 3.5 lengths at Kempton in November….
That one was officially rated 140 then. He’s now rated 166 following his imperious win at Haydock last weekend in the Peter Marsh and he’s as likely to be seen in the Gold Cup next time out as anywhere else….
It’s a good form line to be stuck into. A right flatterer. But how literally you can take that Kempton form is open to discussion….
Royale Pagaillewas eased down in the late stages of that Kempton race and won so comfortably at the end – he was plenty within himself (just as he was again at Haydock off a 16lb higher mark) – that the actual margin between the two horses is difficult to measure….
We will find out exactly how they compare and contrast in the fullness of time. My best guess is that one will prove to be best French bread and the other good old fashioned sliced loaf….
But it’s not just the Royale Pagaille connection driving the market and Cap Du Nord’s price….
Christian Williams sees his 8yo as a genuine Grand National contender and tomorrow is the opportunity to get the horse up the official ratings to a point which guarantees a run at Aintree in April….
In other words, tomorrow’s race is part of a larger plan. He’s coming to win and the expectation is that Christian Williams will Cap Du Nord fully tuned and as calibrated as he can get him….
My concern if I were backer at the price would be two-fold….
One – the horse hasn’t done much on deeper ground. He’s zero from 7 on soft and zero from 2 on heavy. I wonder if underfoot conditions are going to be to his detriment tomorrow….
Two – Christian Williams hasn’t had the best January. It isn’t quite the zero from 30 return that Colin Tizzard turns up with. But zero wins from 17 is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the yard’s current state of health….
Canelo and One For The Team are the obvious alternatives should Cap Du Nord fluff his lines. But at 5s both are well-found and obvious – and this column ain’t about following the market and putting up the obvious in the big handicaps….
This column exists to dig out a ‘live’ contender a little further down the betting list. At ATC we push the boat out a little…. we go against the grain…. we march to the beat of a different drum….
Here’s where my contrarian money is going tomorrow afternoon….
I really respect Heather Graham’s Aye Right – 2nd in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in November – and I thought long and hard about putting him up….
But I’m not entirely convinced the preparation has been ideal for this and the race might well turn into a stepping stone for spring targets….
Graham trains up in the Scottish borders and her grass gallops have been waterlogged or frozen over the last few weeks. She’s got limited work into the 8yo at home….
Yes, he had a blow in a bumper over an inadequate trip at Newcastle last week, but I still wonder if he’s going to be absolutely spot on for this tomorrow….
If he turns up at Town Moore as fit as a butcher’s dog and sluices up, I will just have to swallow it….
But I’ve swerved the gallant little horse at 8s and I’m going with MUSICAL SLAVE at the 8s instead….
Philip Hobbs has won this race before and his 8yo turns out tomorrow having only had one run this term – at Newbury in November….
He ran okay. His jumping let him down. But he caught the eye as a likely improver – just as he had at Uttoxeter on his final assignment of last season….
At the midlands track he’d gone over 3-miles for the first time and posted a career-best RPR….
He ran to within a pound of that level at Newbury over a shorter trip and back up to 3m again tomorrow you’d have every right to expect him to improve again beyond anything he’s shown to date….
If he does that then he’s a real player. And he’s hardly been overworked this term, so you’d expect him to be at the track with some solid level of intention….
There’s certainly theoretical margin for him to grow into….
At Haydock last February, Musical Slave wasn’t disgraced when beaten 6-lenghts by Caribbean Boy in receipt of 5lbs. Given that one is now rated 154, Musical Slave is surely on a half-decent mark on 137….
The Big Bite separated the two on the day. He finished a length in front of the Hobbs horse – also giving him 5lbs. He’s probably a better yardstick – and the fact he’s currently rated 144 (and not yet at the full height of his powers) pays another small compliment to the Hobbs horse….
How soft the ground will be up at Doncaster tomorrow is anybody’s guess. The forecasts suggest a spell of dry weather – so the ground might improve a bit from what it is now (soft)….
But it isn’t going to turn into perfect racing ground overnight and being bottom of the weights under just 10-07 – whilst not a guarantee of anything – certainly isn’t a disadvantage….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3.15 @ Doncaster).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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