Monday, 15th February 2021
The British Horse Racing Authority will release the Grand National weights at lunchtime tomorrow....
Just like last year the issue preoccupying most punters and pundits is whether Tiger Roll will run and try to make it three wins on the bounce in the most famous race on planet Earth....
That will depend on the official handicapper and whether or not he ‘compresses’ Tiger Roll’s rating sufficiently to satisfy the horse’s connections that he will be competitive on the day....
In a normal handicap – running off his current chase rating of 168 – he’d be giving lumps of weight away to the opposition….
But the handicapper can ‘compress’ the weights for the Grand National – meaning the higher rated horses are not asked to give quite so much away….
It’s a system that gets the classier horses into the race with a fighting chance. That’s the idea....
The average ‘compression’ over the last decade amounts to 8lbs. Tiger Roll’s connections will want his rating effectively compressed by at least that amount....
This is a contentious issue. For some months, the Gigginstown team has been both vocal and public in its attempts to sway the handicapper’s thinking….
Team leader Michael O’Leary was at it last weekend. This weekend it was brother Edward in full-on fulmination mode. Talking to journalists, he had a lot to say. I summarise his comments below….
‘We will rock on to the Boyne Hurdle and see how he is abused when the weights for the Grand National come out on Tuesday and take it from there. The handicapper has kept us at this disgraceful rating (170) for the past three years when it’s very obvious he should be dropped. If they don’t want him there, that’s fine. Unless he’s fairly treated he won’t be running in the Grand National. There is far more of a chance of him running in the Irish Grand National than at Aintree…. We’ll assume the English handicapper will leave him off a crazy rating, which would mean Cheltenham could easily be his swansong. Tuesday will decide his fate. Unless he’s given a chance, what’s the point?’
The tactics amount to a blunt instrument – the type of which Donald Trump might approve of. Opinion is presented as fact. The repetitions are relentless. And the language deployed is inflammatory….
You might argue that the O’Leary brothers are passionate men who wear their hearts on their sleeves and call a spade a spade. And well they might be. But how they go about their business serves to put pressure on the official handicapper – and you’d have to see that as a premeditated tactic….
If anything, I think the tactic will prove counter-productive. The handicapper, Martin Greenwood, can’t be seen to be dictated to by uppity owners. It would set an unwelcome precedent. If going to the newspapers and letting rip is all it takes to get favourable treatment for your horse then every Tom, Dick and Harry is going to be at the game….
Greenwood will give a bit – the horse’ recent form almost demands it. But he won’t give so much as he might have done had he been left to do his job without the unsolicited advice and the brickbats….
The handicapping establishment was circling the wagons at the weekend. Previous head handicapper Phil Smith (who handed duties to Greenwood in 2019) had this to say….
‘Mr O’Leary’s comments will go completely over Martin’s head. I ignored them when similar comments were directed to me and Martin will do the same. That’s easy to do because anybody who makes comments before the weights come out regarding what sort of weight they want or expect is inevitably thinking of only their horse. I know connections have spoken about Tiger Roll having the rating of a Gold Cup horse despite the fact he’s never run in the Gold Cup. However, it’s not the handicapper’s fault the horse has never been allowed to run in the Gold Cup. That’s a decision his connections made. Who is to say he wouldn’t have run well in the race?’
We will see what happens. If nothing else, it will be entertaining….
Whether or not Tiger Roll runs, the race will still take place and the release of the weights is a good time to start taking a view of the race and isolating likely contenders....
And, of course, the release of the weights is not the end of the road. Horses can still run in races after the weights for the race have been released....
Those that do and either win or put up a good performance are clearly at an advantage....
The handicapper will raise that horse’s official rating for that performance but the new rating won’t apply to the Grand National and it won’t affect the weight the horse has already been allocated to carry in the Aintree showpiece....
The winner of a race like the Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday, for example – assuming it is entered in the Grand National itself – can turn up at Aintree on the day of the big race several pounds well in. And, of course, that’s a big advantage....
The fact that horses can run again between the weights being released and the second week of April is something to bear in mind. But that shouldn’t hold you back from seeking out ‘live’ contenders for the race as soon as possible....
And I’ve got the tool to help you do just that....
Over the years, time and again, a specific type of horse tends to come out on top in the Grand National....
Grand National winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials. They have similar qualifications. They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks. Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
In short, they meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile.
Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends frequently fall short of getting competitive....
It’s fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least….
And that information can help you reach betting decisions….
No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another....
We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason....
Either way, we get to take a view based on the solid, cold and hard evidence of the historic record....
I’ve studied the last 17 renewals of the race in some detail and there are some strong and reliable signposts that point clearly to the live contenders….
Here’s what I found….
There’s no one right or wrong way to use this information....
You can use it to take a view on horses you’re already thinking about backing....
You can use it to take a view on all the horses still with the potential to make the final 40....
You can use it now or over the next few weeks in a bid to spot potential contenders and to back them in the ante-post markets....
Or you can bide your times and keep your powder dry until closer to the race itself....
That’s your call. Whatever you do, you’ve got the tool to hand that enables you to take an informed view – and an informed view is more than 80% of the people you are betting against have got....
And an informed view represents a genuine edge in the market. At least that’s how I see it....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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