Tuesday, 16th February 2021
At intervals across the year I make a point of studying jockeys and their individual effect on/impact in the races of most interest to me as a punter – the big handicap events….
There’s no right or wrong way of going about it. And not just one way either....
There are all sorts of interesting measures, gauges and approaches you can use and apply to extract useful information....
One measure I like to use is based on the Longines World’s Best Jockey award. I wrote about it in a bit of depth here….
To recap, you take the races you’re interested in across a season and then you award jockeys points for top 3 finishes in those nominated races – 12-points for a win, 6-points for a 2nd, and 4-points for a 3rd-place finish....
Across a season you end up with a league table that tells you whose doing what – and from that you can take a view on relative effectiveness....
At best, the data might lead you to bets the market is underestimating....
At the very least, it’s a unique dataset to go to work with – something most of the people you are betting against won’t be looking at….
We’re talking about an informational edge of sorts. Something that might deliver an advantage in the market. At least that’s the thinking....
But such methods are not limited to providing just a seasonal perspective....
We can apply the same kind of thinking and methodology to a big meeting – like the upcoming Cheltenham Festival....
We can take the races we’re interested in – in my case the open handicaps – apply the methodology and see what the results tell us about which jockeys have proven most effective in that most competitive division of races....
It’s something worth knowing. If we know which jockeys have done the best of the business in the most recent past renewals of open Festival handicaps, we can pay a little more attention to their rides this season than we might otherwise have done….
And we might find things out that the rest of the market isn’t aware of. Over the weekend, I set to work on the idea....
I turned the dials, pulled the levers, and set the number-crunching machine to work on the last seven Cheltenham Festivals with specific focus on the open handicap events – the Ultima, the Paddy Power Plate and the Grand Annual over fences; the County, the Coral Cup and the Pertemps Final over hurdles – and the riders you’d expect to take rides in those races in March….
Just to be clear: that means no focus on the novice or juvenile handicap events, or the Kim Muir (restricted to amateur riders) or the Martin Pipe (restricted to apprentice riders)….
I limited the time-frame to 7-years because I want to work with the most recent and relevant data. Go back much further and it starts to look like ancient history....
I also took the decision to adapt the points system for this Cheltenham project. These Festival handicaps are ultra-competitive. A horse can run the race of its life under the ride of a jockey’s life and still only finish 5th....
I wanted that competitive reality expressed in the results, so for the purposes of this Cheltenham examination jockeys are awarded 12-points for a win, 8-points for 2nd, 6-points for 3rd, 4-points for 4th and 2-points for 5th....
That’s the criterion…. now what about the outcome?
Here’s how the 7-year table stands in terms of total points earned across the 42 qualifying open handicap races run at the last seven Cheltenham Festivals....
Now, before we go any further, let me be clear about a few of the limitations of this table (and the figures it contains)....
One, I’m wilfully concentrating on the top-end of the standings – simply because my objective is to identify jockeys that have had most sustained effect over the last few years rather than provide a point-by-point record of every single jockey to take a ride in a qualifying race….
Two, the table doesn’t tell you anything about the horses or yards involved in the accumulation of each rider’s points – or whether those associations still hold. For example, Sam Twiston-Davies accumulated a lot of his points on horses trained by Paul Nicholls. But he doesn’t ride so many for Nicholls nowadays....
Three, it doesn’t tell you about up-and-coming jockeys who have scored a few points in recent times but haven’t yet had the opportunities to accumulate the kind of points required to make the top echelons of this table. Think Harry Cobden or Rachael Blackmore....
Four, it doesn’t tell you anything about the riders who have done well across the years from limited rides – but who haven’t had the volume of opportunities required to score as heavily as the riders named in the table. Danny Cook would be an example – with three qualifying rides that all placed….
Right now, I’m focused purely on volume of points and the points per ride figures. Because, whatever their limitations, these figures do highlight riders with the most sustained and consistent records of going well and hitting decent finishing spots (making the frame) in the Festival handicaps run over the last 7-years....
One man clearly stands head and shoulders above the rest – Davy Russell....
Under my system of scoring, he’s accumulated 130 points from 25 rides @ 5.2 points per ride. Those figures are well ahead of the rest. Nobody else comes close….
He’s got twice the points of all but one man behind him and it isn’t as if those riders (top men in the weighing room) have been short of sufficient opportunities to accumulate points….
Russell’s simply beaten them hands down and has consistently proved effective on horses he’s been given to ride – plenty of which were available to back at decent prices on the day….
His handicap rides at this year’s Festival – assuming he gets back to full fitness and actually rides at the meeting (right now he’s recovering from a neck injury sustained in a fall at Limerick in October) – clearly merit respect and should be an early port of call for any punter assessing a big Festival handicap….
But I’m not telling you anything the mass market isn’t already well aware of. You’ll hear plenty of talk about Russell’s record from every talking head in the business ahead of the Festival. The secret is out….
You won’t hear so much – if anything at all – about Tom Scudamore’s record in the big Festival handicaps. And therein lies today’s big take-away….
The man who sits second in our standings – with 92 points from 30 rides @ 3.1 points per ride – is probably a little off the market radar. I doubt many punters would have had him down to score so well….
But he has a fine record in the big handicaps we’re focused on. Plenty better than many other good names. The numbers don’t lie. And you don’t post those numbers simply because you get lucky….
Nobody gets that lucky – repeatedly. Not at a Festival. If you come out on the top of any pile at the Festival, it is because you have earned it. There are no flukes. Make no mistake about that….
Scudamore’s numbers are a product of what he brings to the game in the big Festival handicaps. Nothing more. Nothing less….
On the right kinds of horses he has a knack of going well and being involved at the business end of these most competitive races. He knows how to get the best out of horses in those unique circumstances and conditions….
That’s a good knack to have. And it’s a good thing to know about from a betting perspective. It’s a little nugget of useful information to be going on with….
More to come....
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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